{ "ticker": { "uuid": "377a6ad0-407a-41a9-9118-3aaba6dd377d", "symbol": "002559", "name": "Jiangsu Yawei Machine Tool Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.617, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.192, "architecture_energy": 31.277, "architecture_maturity": 48.083, "architecture_confidence": 65.831, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.39, "rotation_up": 16.88, "upward_expansion": 18.06, "deceleration": 68.38, "rotation_down": 63.11, "downward_expansion": 40.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.418667, 10.314727, 10.482092, 10.436195 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.68, "trend_reference": 10.414484, "distance_from_trend": -0.070525, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.439918, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.025433, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.259416, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.077097, "excess_performance": -0.084497, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070525, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008071, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.025433, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144487, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102594, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031626, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077097, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.801819, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143780300, "relative_activity": 0.918352, "balance": 0.801819, "dry_up": 1.308776, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.160901, "annualized_volatility": 0.627695, "from_high_reference": -0.356811, "from_low_reference": 0.163462 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.414484, "fair_value_reference": 9.439918, "structural_low": 8.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.019741, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.003968, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.433155, "worst_return": -0.241379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045111, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.006694, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.061824, "worst_return": -0.086207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015873, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.033008, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15043, "worst_return": -0.241154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.040536, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.009732, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.162886, "worst_return": -0.046315, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00224, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012308, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033191, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09481, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017431, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087768, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052104, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117428, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.161539, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098837, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.110909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.238431, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.382022, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 8.206317, "volume": 449389647, "typical_volume": 126815885.9, "trend": 7.851068, "fair_value": 6.778216, "relative_strength": 9.95968, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.079345, "energy": 36.308836, 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11.49715, 10.968167, 10.747987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.82, "volume": 311641002, "typical_volume": 150175575.15, "trend": 10.495757, "fair_value": 9.431365, "relative_strength": -6.563978, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.217803, "energy": 50.506787, "activity_lines": [ 11.63, 11.256607, 10.892151, 10.704361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.75, "volume": 205852090, "typical_volume": 153575550.3, "trend": 10.463957, "fair_value": 9.434912, "relative_strength": -16.629438, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.888322, "energy": 5.561245, "activity_lines": [ 10.612667, 10.839455, 10.717841, 10.591732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.8, "volume": 158351967, "typical_volume": 155232091.05, "trend": 10.426871, "fair_value": 9.435032, "relative_strength": -14.446335, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.939947, "energy": 30.472743, "activity_lines": [ 9.752, 10.477091, 10.554774, 10.48438 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.68, "volume": 143780300, "typical_volume": 156563353.5, "trend": 10.414484, "fair_value": 9.439918, "relative_strength": -10.259416, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.192114, "energy": 31.276555, "activity_lines": [ 9.418667, 10.314727, 10.482092, 10.436195 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }