{ "ticker": { "uuid": "377e748c-7919-446f-8611-34ecb8aaaaf5", "symbol": "603310", "name": "Zhejiang Weihua New Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.415, "architecture_energy": 47.606, "architecture_maturity": 47.125, "architecture_confidence": 87.563, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.95, "rotation_up": 16.59, "upward_expansion": 6.36, "deceleration": 49.1, "rotation_down": 61.27, "downward_expansion": 79.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.571333, 14.764636, 15.305931, 15.687811 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.79, "trend_reference": 16.212323, "distance_from_trend": -0.087731, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.34361, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.147236, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.916595, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.163462, "excess_performance": -0.120258, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087731, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046698, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.147236, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08466, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119166, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03006, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.163462, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.402463, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9244850, "relative_activity": 0.828227, "balance": 0.402463, "dry_up": 0.759217, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064776, "annualized_volatility": 0.258893, "from_high_reference": -0.3017, "from_low_reference": 0.055675 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.212323, "fair_value_reference": 17.34361, "structural_low": 14.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.026517, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007859, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.047124, "worst_return": -0.094772, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.10559, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.134601, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.10559, "worst_return": -0.10559, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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"fair_value": 17.396454, "relative_strength": -13.62791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.245453, "energy": 53.72729, "activity_lines": [ 14.629333, 14.950595, 15.521499, 15.900218 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.56, "volume": 6898332, "typical_volume": 11424056.05, "trend": 16.279656, "fair_value": 17.368645, "relative_strength": -11.358605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.240775, "energy": 54.842336, "activity_lines": [ 14.567333, 14.815518, 15.396167, 15.783918 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.79, "volume": 9244850, "typical_volume": 11162215.2, "trend": 16.212323, "fair_value": 17.34361, "relative_strength": -11.916595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.414578, "energy": 47.60632, "activity_lines": [ 14.571333, 14.764636, 15.305931, 15.687811 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }