{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3783819c-2a0d-4510-9440-d10ce3255bb3", "symbol": "AXS", "name": "Accsys Technologies PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 70.774, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.058, "architecture_energy": 17.709, "architecture_maturity": 53.444, "architecture_confidence": 79.14, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.71, "rotation_up": 16.15, "upward_expansion": 52.32, "deceleration": 93.25, "rotation_down": 35.61, "downward_expansion": 20.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.714933, 0.7322, 0.728486, 0.706166 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.69, "trend_reference": 0.678233, "distance_from_trend": 0.017349, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.588343, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.172785, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.775322, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.102236, "excess_performance": 0.051001, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017349, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070275, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.172785, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050568, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027753, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050327, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102236, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.887394, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 213081, "relative_activity": 0.387667, "balance": 0.887394, "dry_up": 0.593928, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061923, "annualized_volatility": 0.286161, "from_high_reference": -0.126582, "from_low_reference": 0.187689 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.678233, "fair_value_reference": 0.588343, "structural_low": 0.582, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.009772, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.022366, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.145038, "worst_return": -0.066667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001345, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052613, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.088235, "worst_return": -0.113833, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.004234, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005945, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.142384, "worst_return": -0.259366, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"orange", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.087237, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.08363, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.165049, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02954, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008361, 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"relative_strength": 7.739593, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.080965, "energy": 30.363506, "activity_lines": [ 0.7474, 0.7548, 0.724305, 0.698415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.734, "volume": 326891, "typical_volume": 534353.35, "trend": 0.6721, "fair_value": 0.592276, "relative_strength": 4.763736, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.110312, "energy": 24.977185, "activity_lines": [ 0.7404, 0.751982, 0.728367, 0.702656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.712, "volume": 377304, "typical_volume": 547186.2, "trend": 0.6755, "fair_value": 0.590237, "relative_strength": 0.507554, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.675217, "energy": 22.716055, "activity_lines": [ 0.729533, 0.744364, 0.729738, 0.70523 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.69, "volume": 213081, "typical_volume": 549648.9, "trend": 0.678233, "fair_value": 0.588343, "relative_strength": -2.775322, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.058147, "energy": 17.709478, "activity_lines": [ 0.714933, 0.7322, 0.728486, 0.706166 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }