{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3783978e-6389-4b39-8716-25b5411fbce5", "symbol": "603989", "name": "Hunan Aihua Group Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.512, "architecture_energy": 29.078, "architecture_maturity": 71.767, "architecture_confidence": 93.502, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.35, "rotation_up": 19.15, "upward_expansion": 54.95, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 46.55, "downward_expansion": 23.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.261333, 33.688244, 32.192758, 29.050226 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.219999, "trend_reference": 25.198719, "distance_from_trend": 0.159583, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.158607, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.609154, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 34.107009, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.606377, "excess_performance": 0.649581, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.159583, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.339413, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.609154, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.379444, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.34107, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.228084, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.606377, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.103321, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143914055, "relative_activity": 2.053388, "balance": 1.103321, "dry_up": 1.701888, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.280482, "annualized_volatility": 1.140161, "from_high_reference": -0.494218, "from_low_reference": 0.885161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.198719, "fair_value_reference": 18.158607, "structural_low": 15.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.015938, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013081, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.084029, "worst_return": -0.108647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.069333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.091332, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.037694, "worst_return": -0.292499, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.049046, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.058781, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.096557, "worst_return": -0.277008, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090965, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017416, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093681, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037865, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031585, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039429, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"typical_volume": 59313541.7, "trend": 24.529386, "fair_value": 18.084966, "relative_strength": 26.496839, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.635658, "energy": 23.083783, "activity_lines": [ 34.977316, 37.305591, 32.419202, 28.774964 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.360001, "volume": 126890425, "typical_volume": 64207704.4, "trend": 24.784053, "fair_value": 18.105867, "relative_strength": 16.116669, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.408885, "energy": 25.802689, "activity_lines": [ 29.762, 35.019207, 32.089147, 28.764036 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.219999, "volume": 143914055, "typical_volume": 70086161.6, "trend": 25.198719, "fair_value": 18.158607, "relative_strength": 34.107009, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.512403, "energy": 29.078314, "activity_lines": [ 28.261333, 33.688244, 32.192758, 29.050226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }