{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3785402d-9664-4c60-b5a0-6d9c203f4758", "symbol": "OI", "name": "O-I Glass Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.239, "architecture_energy": 78.274, "architecture_maturity": 56.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.91, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.6, "rotation_up": 10.64, "upward_expansion": 16.08, "deceleration": 38.53, "rotation_down": 75.87, "downward_expansion": 89.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.924667, 8.56, 8.882524, 9.515441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.03, "trend_reference": 10.795667, "distance_from_trend": -0.348813, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.095192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.463162, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.807085, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.57727, "excess_performance": -0.702895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.348813, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145169, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.463162, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119526, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.478071, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100761, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.57727, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.525908, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15987464, "relative_activity": 1.123906, "balance": 0.525908, "dry_up": 1.50451, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149032, "annualized_volatility": 0.586182, "from_high_reference": -0.58427, "from_low_reference": 0.003569 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.795667, "fair_value_reference": 13.095192, "structural_low": 7.005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.006029, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.042992, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.237674, "worst_return": -0.269663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.050864, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.00119, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.35341, "worst_return": -0.235355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.10969, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.15963, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.37524, "worst_return": -0.159433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -32.281265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.429297, "energy": 21.204379, "activity_lines": [ 9.482667, 9.264364, 9.401857, 10.205849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.08, "volume": 10384551, "typical_volume": 13711632.7, "trend": 11.344333, "fair_value": 13.257564, "relative_strength": -31.238991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.611634, "energy": 24.188627, "activity_lines": [ 9.342, 9.269455, 9.342286, 10.047161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.15, "volume": 26232614, "typical_volume": 14298095.4, "trend": 11.077333, "fair_value": 13.178013, "relative_strength": -45.782703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.524823, "energy": 52.646019, "activity_lines": [ 8.568, 8.910364, 9.109857, 9.776559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.03, "volume": 15987464, "typical_volume": 14224910.3, "trend": 10.795667, "fair_value": 13.095192, "relative_strength": -47.807085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.238751, "energy": 78.273903, "activity_lines": [ 7.924667, 8.56, 8.882524, 9.515441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }