{ "ticker": { "uuid": "378fda47-88e7-4948-9bd7-109d5f9f050f", "symbol": "NAPA", "name": "Napatech A/S", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -0.982, "architecture_energy": 22.662, "architecture_maturity": 56.517, "architecture_confidence": 73.533, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.02, "rotation_up": 14.18, "upward_expansion": 42.7, "deceleration": 86.01, "rotation_down": 48.98, "downward_expansion": 39.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.836667, 41.98, 43.738333, 41.760215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 41.5, "trend_reference": 39.158333, "distance_from_trend": 0.0598, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.477308, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.56738, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.262939, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.280864, "excess_performance": 0.15587, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0598, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148114, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.56738, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.391792, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.092629, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.31649, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.280864, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.741774, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1265502, "relative_activity": 1.291192, "balance": 2.741774, "dry_up": 0.950122, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12215, "annualized_volatility": 0.647783, "from_high_reference": -0.308333, "from_low_reference": 1.113035 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.158333, "fair_value_reference": 26.477308, "structural_low": 28.950001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.014925, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.027878, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.31579, "worst_return": -0.158696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.091339, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.020093, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.687023, "worst_return": -0.253247, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.070367, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009073, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.625954, "worst_return": -0.197674, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015873, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.196078, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.233516, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021978, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070248, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134021, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.208171, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.099668, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007617, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097826, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.1, "volume": 173796, "typical_volume": 178912.45, "trend": 10.542667, "fair_value": 13.627051, "relative_strength": -18.105607, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.675286, 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37.843333, "fair_value": 25.722051, "relative_strength": 14.958056, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.883264, "energy": 25.8036, "activity_lines": [ 45.163332, 47.929999, 44.340952, 41.454838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.700001, "volume": 919401, "typical_volume": 937453.95, "trend": 38.133333, "fair_value": 25.906538, "relative_strength": 7.038537, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.855133, "energy": 24.070817, "activity_lines": [ 42.486666, 46.053636, 44.145714, 41.510107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.0, "volume": 812626, "typical_volume": 933092.85, "trend": 38.436667, "fair_value": 26.091474, "relative_strength": 4.719805, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.501397, "energy": 23.780439, "activity_lines": [ 40.71, 44.363636, 43.967857, 41.566021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.700001, "volume": 727343, "typical_volume": 940789.45, "trend": 38.753333, "fair_value": 26.275128, "relative_strength": 2.98954, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.520756, "energy": 24.381046, "activity_lines": [ 39.553334, 42.800909, 43.735714, 41.583011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.5, "volume": 1265502, "typical_volume": 980103.35, "trend": 39.158333, "fair_value": 26.477308, "relative_strength": 9.262939, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.982221, "energy": 22.662352, "activity_lines": [ 39.836667, 41.98, 43.738333, 41.760215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }