{ "ticker": { "uuid": "379668c0-f848-43e5-8cdb-ee2c089a0792", "symbol": "FST", "name": "First Trust Canadian Capital Strength ETF Common", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.138, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.545, "architecture_energy": 89.87, "architecture_maturity": 37.31, "architecture_confidence": 64.581, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.41, "rotation_up": 79.02, "upward_expansion": 93.44, "deceleration": 44.92, "rotation_down": 10.64, "downward_expansion": 20.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.743332, 77.951259, 77.283974, 76.432584 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 80.389999, "trend_reference": 75.386475, "distance_from_trend": 0.066372, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.083581, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.38404, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.328384, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.098297, "excess_performance": -0.022125, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066372, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030511, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.38404, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001404, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013284, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005057, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098297, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.508126, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 800, "relative_activity": 0.071301, "balance": 0.508126, "dry_up": 0.274064, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014691, "annualized_volatility": 0.113755, "from_high_reference": -0.006304, "from_low_reference": 0.262262 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.386475, "fair_value_reference": 58.083581, "structural_low": 70.302475, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": 0.017018, "positive_rate": 0.653061, "directional_follow_through": 0.653061, "median_excess_return": 0.000875, "regime_survival": 0.795918, "best_return": 0.053476, "worst_return": -0.082953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.024358, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.003172, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.109952, "worst_return": -0.040709, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.091874, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.017449, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.147472, "worst_return": -0.063586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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55.401032, "activity_lines": [ 77.282596, 77.063307, 76.597265, 75.858877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 78.589996, "volume": 6700, "typical_volume": 11935.0, "trend": 75.160612, "fair_value": 57.842267, "relative_strength": -0.451594, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.304758, "energy": 77.566033, "activity_lines": [ 77.794666, 77.361031, 76.869412, 76.095204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.389999, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 11220.0, "trend": 75.386475, "fair_value": 58.083581, "relative_strength": -1.328384, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.544537, "energy": 89.870225, "activity_lines": [ 78.743332, 77.951259, 77.283974, 76.432584 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }