{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3798abdd-e4c5-449a-bc4a-8bc07e75b3a1", "symbol": "AGL", "name": "agilon health Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 75.698, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.395, "architecture_energy": 32.942, "architecture_maturity": 77.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.05, "rotation_up": 32.09, "upward_expansion": 61.24, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 27.77, "downward_expansion": 22.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 100.834667, 106.503455, 94.975833, 77.333263 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 95.51, "trend_reference": 56.211917, "distance_from_trend": 0.699106, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 119.877179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.203268, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 110.059346, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 4.895679, "excess_performance": 4.770054, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.699106, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.167422, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.203268, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.43589, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 1.100593, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.488503, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 4.895679, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.027171, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3437210, "relative_activity": 0.996, "balance": 4.027171, "dry_up": 0.603424, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.220002, "annualized_volatility": 1.856267, "from_high_reference": -0.282096, "from_low_reference": 11.768717 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.211917, "fair_value_reference": 119.877179, "structural_low": 7.48, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.139959, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.184445, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.04955, "worst_return": -0.203659, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.31308, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.415282, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.225259, "worst_return": -0.400901, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.625677, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.737107, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.531263, "worst_return": -0.72009, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.36036, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.454343, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.555605, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 129.84, "volume": 1859850, "typical_volume": 6410447.6, "trend": 48.700833, "fair_value": 127.192115, "relative_strength": 217.122461, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.404434, "energy": 69.690882, "activity_lines": [ 119.595333, 113.108727, 87.252381, 68.868651 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 98.0, "volume": 1561227, "typical_volume": 4891745.7, "trend": 51.362667, "fair_value": 124.796282, "relative_strength": 136.565002, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.834734, "energy": 56.267296, "activity_lines": [ 113.012, 111.674, 90.494, 72.049242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 91.61, "volume": 1471407, "typical_volume": 4089850.2, "trend": 53.855, "fair_value": 122.263333, "relative_strength": 114.798925, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.679862, "energy": 42.095898, "activity_lines": [ 105.352, 108.781636, 92.731607, 74.645844 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 95.51, "volume": 3437210, "typical_volume": 3451013.85, "trend": 56.211917, "fair_value": 119.877179, "relative_strength": 110.059346, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.39451, "energy": 32.942098, "activity_lines": [ 100.834667, 106.503455, 94.975833, 77.333263 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }