{ "ticker": { "uuid": "379d7fb9-32fa-4bc5-b819-03859db0bf44", "symbol": "CSW-A", "name": "Corby Spirit and Wine Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.72, "architecture_energy": 60.366, "architecture_maturity": 57.401, "architecture_confidence": 77.789, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 62.72, "upward_expansion": 82.86, "deceleration": 66.14, "rotation_down": 20.55, "downward_expansion": 9.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.114, 15.956182, 15.560619, 15.229056 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.360001, "trend_reference": 14.807963, "distance_from_trend": 0.104811, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.752491, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.282887, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.681874, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.194011, "excess_performance": 0.07359, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.104811, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045491, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.282887, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067411, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016819, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039067, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.194011, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.951594, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88700, "relative_activity": 1.480801, "balance": 1.951594, "dry_up": 1.656511, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03097, "annualized_volatility": 0.115818, "from_high_reference": -0.027926, "from_low_reference": 0.285567 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.807963, "fair_value_reference": 12.752491, "structural_low": 13.653305, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.014785, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.005181, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.053177, "worst_return": -0.085586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.00481, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006435, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.122622, "worst_return": -0.112105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012072, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.08372, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.071454, "worst_return": -0.118917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.624051, "energy": 69.987192, "activity_lines": [ 15.793333, 15.5956, 15.218639, 14.936445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.84, "volume": 89100, "typical_volume": 53900.0, "trend": 14.659191, "fair_value": 12.703419, "relative_strength": 0.830997, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.904953, "energy": 56.359168, "activity_lines": [ 15.806, 15.674248, 15.3098, 15.016559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.32, "volume": 173400, "typical_volume": 58780.0, "trend": 14.727101, "fair_value": 12.728144, "relative_strength": 4.495311, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.643915, "energy": 58.475023, "activity_lines": [ 15.962667, 15.825091, 15.438414, 15.123708 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.360001, "volume": 88700, "typical_volume": 59900.0, "trend": 14.807963, "fair_value": 12.752491, "relative_strength": 1.681874, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.719767, "energy": 60.365549, "activity_lines": [ 16.114, 15.956182, 15.560619, 15.229056 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }