{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37a59f7d-e8f6-40b9-a24a-118e2b8095a6", "symbol": "002942", "name": "Zhejiang XinNong Chemical Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.76, "architecture_energy": 59.017, "architecture_maturity": 83.875, "architecture_confidence": 95.932, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 26.73, "upward_expansion": 10.8, "deceleration": 60.77, "rotation_down": 54.21, "downward_expansion": 84.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.519333, 14.677636, 15.828798, 16.9208 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.21, "trend_reference": 18.347582, "distance_from_trend": -0.171008, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.204411, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061367, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.676937, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.316404, "excess_performance": -0.323804, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.171008, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084174, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061367, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250007, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226769, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04448, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.316404, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.270573, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7791674, "relative_activity": 1.094111, "balance": 0.270573, "dry_up": 1.142814, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079778, "annualized_volatility": 0.33406, "from_high_reference": -0.446909, "from_low_reference": 0.137622 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.347582, "fair_value_reference": 16.204411, "structural_low": 13.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.022059, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.028886, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.214982, "worst_return": -0.154916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.107023, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.0011, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.292999, "worst_return": -0.261842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.138434, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.101348, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.346317, "worst_return": -0.267297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.105369, "energy": 82.762011, "activity_lines": [ 14.650667, 15.315085, 16.695, 17.747601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.47, "volume": 10024829, "typical_volume": 7707901.6, "trend": 18.649582, "fair_value": 16.246149, "relative_strength": -30.086976, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.790717, "energy": 71.628326, "activity_lines": [ 14.212667, 14.850584, 16.280298, 17.398919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.51, "volume": 7593179, "typical_volume": 7377732.05, "trend": 18.481249, "fair_value": 16.222912, "relative_strength": -22.909091, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.885363, "energy": 65.244919, "activity_lines": [ 14.246667, 14.665306, 16.004119, 17.131849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.21, "volume": 7791674, "typical_volume": 7121468.25, "trend": 18.347582, "fair_value": 16.204411, "relative_strength": -22.676937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.760155, "energy": 59.016847, "activity_lines": [ 14.519333, 14.677636, 15.828798, 16.9208 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }