{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37ae81aa-a3ae-4ffd-8d31-0ade5c3f06e8", "symbol": "ABR", "name": "Albright Metals Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.6, "architecture_energy": 43.472, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.527, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.15, "rotation_up": 17.26, "upward_expansion": 6.03, "deceleration": 45.73, "rotation_down": 54.32, "downward_expansion": 77.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.002833, 0.002964, 0.003181, 0.003327 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.0025, "trend_reference": 0.0036, "distance_from_trend": -0.305556, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.00675, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.62963, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.135149, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166667, "excess_performance": -0.230372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.305556, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076923, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.62963, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072632, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.401351, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083156, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.350728, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1136366, "relative_activity": 0.369184, "balance": 2.350728, "dry_up": 0.844286, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.276923, "annualized_volatility": 1.137872, "from_high_reference": -0.583333, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0036, "fair_value_reference": 0.00675, "structural_low": 0.002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.018509, "positive_rate": 0.282609, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024232, "regime_survival": 0.847826, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.4375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.08287, "positive_rate": 0.1875, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.090684, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.148148, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.217545, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.27938, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.037037, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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4966242.45, "trend": 0.003683, "fair_value": 0.006958, "relative_strength": -25.497032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.474678, "energy": 48.074494, "activity_lines": [ 0.003, 0.003136, 0.003302, 0.003445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.003, "volume": 3327630, "typical_volume": 3165105.0, "trend": 0.00365, "fair_value": 0.006856, "relative_strength": -26.445337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.22612, "energy": 36.121976, "activity_lines": [ 0.003, 0.003091, 0.003264, 0.003401 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 1136366, "typical_volume": 3078045.35, "trend": 0.0036, "fair_value": 0.00675, "relative_strength": -40.135149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.600298, "energy": 43.472029, "activity_lines": [ 0.002833, 0.002964, 0.003181, 0.003327 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }