{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "37bd01e7-900f-4386-8c9e-3d3b8c8c8ce4",
    "symbol": "VITA",
    "name": "Rize Environmental Impact 100 UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 53.746,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 36.482,
    "architecture_energy": 18.223,
    "architecture_maturity": 49.475,
    "architecture_confidence": 76.102,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 51.47,
        "rotation_up": 28.81,
        "upward_expansion": 47.84,
        "deceleration": 84.25,
        "rotation_down": 26.3,
        "downward_expansion": 25.84
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        5.551133,
        5.555145,
        5.562167,
        5.499606
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 5.651,
    "trend_reference": 5.418167,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.042973,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 4.602074,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.227925,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -5.868195,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.070062,
    "excess_performance": -0.100829,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042973,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.047127,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.227925,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.028138,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.058682,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.072853,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.070062,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.860025,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4173,
      "relative_activity": 1.146476,
      "balance": 0.860025,
      "dry_up": 1.700207,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.024107,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.144676,
      "from_high_reference": -0.021811,
      "from_low_reference": 0.221706
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 5.418167,
      "fair_value_reference": 4.602074,
      "structural_low": 5.003,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.025389,
        "positive_rate": 0.818182,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.818182,
        "median_excess_return": 0.005543,
        "regime_survival": 0.454545,
        "best_return": 0.102574,
        "worst_return": -0.023748,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.05247,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001567,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.158313,
        "worst_return": 0.021864,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.049382,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.042449,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.228507,
        "worst_return": 0.005394,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.024256,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.208826,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.050264,
        "worst_return": -0.001752,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.066155,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.031869,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.024798,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009728,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.022654,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.042496,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.002098,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.026556,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.048084,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-09",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.011851,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.08202,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.007602,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.008747,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "activity_lines": [
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 2642.45,
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        "relative_strength": -0.123526,
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 5.284033,
        "fair_value": 4.55808,
        "relative_strength": -3.734276,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.317125,
        "energy": 37.624972,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 0,
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        "trend": 5.309717,
        "fair_value": 4.566215,
        "relative_strength": -5.843324,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 33.058898,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 11893,
        "typical_volume": 2603.3,
        "trend": 5.332133,
        "fair_value": 4.573362,
        "relative_strength": -6.827434,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.851447,
        "energy": 29.353033,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.566933,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 5.495,
        "volume": 6333,
        "typical_volume": 2816.45,
        "trend": 5.355483,
        "fair_value": 4.579952,
        "relative_strength": -5.680873,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.060098,
        "energy": 19.907952,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.541667,
          5.571527,
          5.535876,
          5.465527
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 5.532,
        "volume": 8696,
        "typical_volume": 3220.5,
        "trend": 5.378717,
        "fair_value": 4.586622,
        "relative_strength": -4.768867,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 32.086504,
        "energy": 18.258798,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.5302,
          5.559545,
          5.544119,
          5.476915
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 5.478,
        "volume": 5552,
        "typical_volume": 3490.55,
        "trend": 5.398567,
        "fair_value": 4.59358,
        "relative_strength": -6.156654,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 14.699584,
        "energy": 14.132958,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.508867,
          5.540855,
          5.545805,
          5.48332
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 5.651,
        "volume": 4173,
        "typical_volume": 3639.85,
        "trend": 5.418167,
        "fair_value": 4.602074,
        "relative_strength": -5.868195,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.482472,
        "energy": 18.222642,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.551133,
          5.555145,
          5.562167,
          5.499606
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}