{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37bff2a7-2947-4410-9823-7d5b311d405f", "symbol": "8100", "name": "Saudi Arabian Cooperative Insurance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.126, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 17.868, "architecture_energy": 15.938, "architecture_maturity": 30.24, "architecture_confidence": 57.366, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.11, "rotation_up": 39.67, "upward_expansion": 37.87, "deceleration": 38.4, "rotation_down": 28.98, "downward_expansion": 19.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.364, 10.388727, 10.078571, 9.931269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.48, "trend_reference": 10.005333, "distance_from_trend": 0.047441, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.186795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.261285, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.433405, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.061773, "excess_performance": -0.029943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047441, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058735, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.261285, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05877, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054334, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155968, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061773, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.124393, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1495706, "relative_activity": 1.112839, "balance": 3.124393, "dry_up": 0.827089, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078391, "annualized_volatility": 0.389784, "from_high_reference": -0.309618, "from_low_reference": 0.252091 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.005333, "fair_value_reference": 14.186795, "structural_low": 8.37, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.008662, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.006426, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.092187, "worst_return": -0.155246, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.070983, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.041707, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.042187, "worst_return": -0.184154, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.076626, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003672, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.04375, "worst_return": -0.197002, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073077, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105869, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064865, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017157, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027837, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071013, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.05098, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.281567, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008662, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 12.16, "volume": 591693, "typical_volume": 425714.75, "trend": 12.675333, "fair_value": 18.06141, "relative_strength": -8.955585, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.889412, 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9.865286, 9.875591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.61, "volume": 640144, "typical_volume": 1326094.25, "trend": 10.064667, "fair_value": 14.219167, "relative_strength": -5.328318, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.783875, "energy": 34.971152, "activity_lines": [ 10.554, 10.382182, 9.96419, 9.908968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.95, "volume": 822645, "typical_volume": 1286920.95, "trend": 10.019667, "fair_value": 14.200897, "relative_strength": -8.774905, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.399604, "energy": 18.394327, "activity_lines": [ 10.368667, 10.342364, 9.998714, 9.90157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.48, "volume": 1495706, "typical_volume": 1344045.7, "trend": 10.005333, "fair_value": 14.186795, "relative_strength": -5.433405, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.868395, "energy": 15.937943, "activity_lines": [ 10.364, 10.388727, 10.078571, 9.931269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }