{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37c47c11-7518-49df-a63e-2297b9460def", "symbol": "600016", "name": "China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.994, "architecture_energy": 27.271, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 64.455, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.91, "rotation_up": 39.56, "upward_expansion": 21.51, "deceleration": 44.17, "rotation_down": 20.99, "downward_expansion": 55.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.526, 3.461973, 3.49005, 3.56027 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.53, "trend_reference": 3.647917, "distance_from_trend": -0.032324, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.715798, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.050002, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.976767, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.058667, "excess_performance": -0.015463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032324, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045675, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.050002, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030548, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079768, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121119, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.058667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.611996, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1483603717, "relative_activity": 1.718595, "balance": 1.611996, "dry_up": 1.760717, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036394, "annualized_volatility": 0.171446, "from_high_reference": -0.279749, "from_low_reference": 0.090736 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.647917, "fair_value_reference": 3.715798, "structural_low": 3.236348, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.005102, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.008628, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.107872, "worst_return": -0.066001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.002551, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.033092, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.162242, "worst_return": -0.118932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.023406, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.013209, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.216284, "worst_return": -0.147144, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076487, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057214, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.076694, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017413, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027638, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 3.46, "volume": 1365456301, "typical_volume": 846906221.6, "trend": 3.679583, "fair_value": 3.712301, "relative_strength": -8.175119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.285681, "energy": 70.036049, "activity_lines": [ 3.35973, 3.399049, 3.499205, 3.583071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.5, "volume": 1729576002, "typical_volume": 853099359.05, "trend": 3.665917, "fair_value": 3.713613, "relative_strength": -7.311669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.151308, "energy": 47.684267, "activity_lines": [ 3.410423, 3.411267, 3.489646, 3.571485 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.62, "volume": 1501227924, "typical_volume": 846838213.6, "trend": 3.657917, "fair_value": 3.71519, "relative_strength": -3.807413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.000933, "energy": 22.301737, "activity_lines": [ 3.496, 3.446233, 3.493324, 3.568523 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.53, "volume": 1483603717, "typical_volume": 863265404.75, "trend": 3.647917, "fair_value": 3.715798, "relative_strength": -7.976767, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.993553, "energy": 27.27068, "activity_lines": [ 3.526, 3.461973, 3.49005, 3.56027 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }