{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37c73b07-6c59-4fa9-ba36-ebe6672726e0", "symbol": "CISB", "name": "iShares Smart City Infrastructure UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.957, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.177, "architecture_energy": 61.839, "architecture_maturity": 5.192, "architecture_confidence": 70.629, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.07, "rotation_up": 63.83, "upward_expansion": 76.88, "deceleration": 45.58, "rotation_down": 13.38, "downward_expansion": 24.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.6876, 10.568218, 10.572724, 10.44148 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.658, "trend_reference": 10.249067, "distance_from_trend": 0.0399, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.285801, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.286297, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.679888, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.063673, "excess_performance": 0.020582, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0399, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041918, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.286297, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069839, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006799, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092438, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063673, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.799602, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4984, "relative_activity": 0.199456, "balance": 4.799602, "dry_up": 1.616466, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020598, "annualized_volatility": 0.18466, "from_high_reference": -0.034776, "from_low_reference": 0.219311 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.249067, "fair_value_reference": 8.285801, "structural_low": 9.078, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.00437, "positive_rate": 0.527778, "directional_follow_through": 0.527778, "median_excess_return": 0.008589, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.074154, "worst_return": -0.094368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.01378, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.010677, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.095317, "worst_return": -0.157429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.085332, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.032446, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.111359, "worst_return": -0.109743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.384691, "energy": 21.03397, "activity_lines": [ 10.287467, 10.405709, 10.452776, 10.316703 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.852, "volume": 6646, "typical_volume": 24155.6, "trend": 10.1723, "fair_value": 8.2295, "relative_strength": 0.557331, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.789887, "energy": 23.569087, "activity_lines": [ 10.4548, 10.467345, 10.50369, 10.363551 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.938, "volume": 87133, "typical_volume": 26501.2, "trend": 10.2158, "fair_value": 8.258526, "relative_strength": 2.393205, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.644088, "energy": 44.027693, "activity_lines": [ 10.632533, 10.5448, 10.555762, 10.412951 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 10.658, "volume": 4984, "typical_volume": 24988.0, "trend": 10.249067, "fair_value": 8.285801, "relative_strength": -0.679888, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.176519, "energy": 61.838565, "activity_lines": [ 10.6876, 10.568218, 10.572724, 10.44148 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }