{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37c7e777-efd1-45c1-8b39-eca44fead17a", "symbol": "600168", "name": "Wuhan Sanzhen Industry Holding Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.207, "architecture_energy": 42.263, "architecture_maturity": 86.759, "architecture_confidence": 63.04, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.22, "rotation_up": 26.36, "upward_expansion": 18.38, "deceleration": 66.93, "rotation_down": 42.98, "downward_expansion": 68.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.238, 4.23059, 4.419355, 4.602587 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.24, "trend_reference": 4.828362, "distance_from_trend": -0.121855, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.574538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.07313, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.790103, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.19697, "excess_performance": -0.153766, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121855, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062519, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.07313, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174367, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137901, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053373, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.19697, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.495791, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31916926, "relative_activity": 1.093996, "balance": 0.495791, "dry_up": 0.967212, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060754, "annualized_volatility": 0.23641, "from_high_reference": -0.375552, "from_low_reference": 0.046914 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.828362, "fair_value_reference": 4.574538, "structural_low": 4.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.021971, "positive_rate": 0.722222, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": 0.004973, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.176471, "worst_return": -0.160669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.044265, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.02123, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.167883, "worst_return": -0.148106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008525, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033612, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.111392, "worst_return": -0.025641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12766, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047817, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029634, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004115, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109562, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -69.373162, "energy": 60.787642, "activity_lines": [ 4.192667, 4.259008, 4.498791, 4.680763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.29, "volume": 22873078, "typical_volume": 30032730.7, "trend": 4.856695, "fair_value": 4.575603, "relative_strength": -10.68335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.686352, "energy": 51.748331, "activity_lines": [ 4.231333, 4.245814, 4.458597, 4.642374 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.24, "volume": 31916926, "typical_volume": 29174636.55, "trend": 4.828362, "fair_value": 4.574538, "relative_strength": -13.790103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.207135, "energy": 42.262871, "activity_lines": [ 4.238, 4.23059, 4.419355, 4.602587 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }