{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37c935c4-0799-4c7d-b10c-cbc4034d28f5", "symbol": "SMIF", "name": "TwentyFour Select Monthly Income Fund Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.154, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.617, "architecture_energy": 47.554, "architecture_maturity": 16.715, "architecture_confidence": 81.784, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.09, "rotation_up": 51.94, "upward_expansion": 81.36, "deceleration": 52.84, "rotation_down": 22.94, "downward_expansion": 8.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.860069, 0.858676, 0.852998, 0.848014 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.862, "trend_reference": 0.844509, "distance_from_trend": 0.020712, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.750516, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.148544, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.101916, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.011459, "excess_performance": -0.039776, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020712, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008977, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.148544, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010467, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051019, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013054, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011459, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.186642, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5258422, "relative_activity": 1.168294, "balance": 9.186642, "dry_up": 0.869225, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013842, "annualized_volatility": 0.077779, "from_high_reference": -0.016637, "from_low_reference": 0.189026 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.844509, "fair_value_reference": 0.750516, "structural_low": 0.724963, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.008398, "positive_rate": 0.794872, "directional_follow_through": 0.794872, "median_excess_return": 0.001964, "regime_survival": 0.897436, "best_return": 0.036868, "worst_return": -0.056833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.023337, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.012733, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.087709, "worst_return": -0.058728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.046751, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.003335, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.166004, "worst_return": 0.016131, "sufficient": 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3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.259238, "energy": 60.882239, "activity_lines": [ 0.859482, 0.857021, 0.849557, 0.845896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.858, "volume": 3889694, "typical_volume": 4761731.8, "trend": 0.843893, "fair_value": 0.74872, "relative_strength": -5.469852, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.792865, "energy": 50.887107, "activity_lines": [ 0.859141, 0.857557, 0.851145, 0.846846 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.862, "volume": 5258422, "typical_volume": 4500941.45, "trend": 0.844509, "fair_value": 0.750516, "relative_strength": -5.101916, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.617175, "energy": 47.553977, "activity_lines": [ 0.860069, 0.858676, 0.852998, 0.848014 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }