{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37ca1b5a-31df-4d95-b2e3-7244d365bca4", "symbol": "MET", "name": "Met.Extra Group S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.521, "architecture_energy": 29.562, "architecture_maturity": 70.269, "architecture_confidence": 90.959, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.17, "rotation_up": 28.73, "upward_expansion": 62.29, "deceleration": 91.04, "rotation_down": 27.31, "downward_expansion": 16.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.524, 2.566545, 2.419333, 2.288774 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.54, "trend_reference": 2.136667, "distance_from_trend": 0.188768, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.171923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169471, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.476697, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.343915, "excess_performance": 0.173024, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.188768, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140975, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169471, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.363986, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.114767, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.213891, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.343915, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.857371, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8809, "relative_activity": 0.380283, "balance": 0.857371, "dry_up": 0.46821, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092368, "annualized_volatility": 0.552522, "from_high_reference": -0.111888, "from_low_reference": 0.814286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.136667, "fair_value_reference": 2.171923, "structural_low": 1.68, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.018612, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.039825, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.14375, "worst_return": -0.187817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.090278, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.084141, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.025381, "worst_return": -0.122137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.141593, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.190428, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.208122, "worst_return": -0.201389, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.468873, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.460463, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.409722, "worst_return": -0.528024, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.026087, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070796, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.191589, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065421, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.228426, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061798, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032787, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025773, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.78, "volume": 9853, "typical_volume": 3747.75, "trend": 3.514333, "fair_value": 5.038397, "relative_strength": -31.81598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.710775, "energy": 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"typical_volume": 23247.95, "trend": 2.05, "fair_value": 2.182692, "relative_strength": 18.829819, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.04394, "energy": 61.617675, "activity_lines": [ 2.649333, 2.578, 2.332905, 2.207484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.46, "volume": 12418, "typical_volume": 23303.65, "trend": 2.078667, "fair_value": 2.179359, "relative_strength": 13.051747, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.708875, "energy": 51.263809, "activity_lines": [ 2.586667, 2.575636, 2.361, 2.233935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.5, "volume": 10991, "typical_volume": 23772.85, "trend": 2.111333, "fair_value": 2.174872, "relative_strength": 13.547271, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.497118, "energy": 35.666643, "activity_lines": [ 2.54, 2.568364, 2.389952, 2.261118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.54, "volume": 8809, "typical_volume": 23164.3, "trend": 2.136667, "fair_value": 2.171923, "relative_strength": 11.476697, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.520852, "energy": 29.562261, "activity_lines": [ 2.524, 2.566545, 2.419333, 2.288774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }