{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37ce3dc1-48d0-46c2-bf10-2fcdc1755b17", "symbol": "PAXG", "name": "Amundi MSCI Pacific Ex Japan UCITS ETF Dist", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.374, "architecture_energy": 93.86, "architecture_maturity": 37.5, "architecture_confidence": 68.451, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.96, "rotation_up": 85.97, "upward_expansion": 96.57, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 8.22, "downward_expansion": 20.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 9375.8, 9234.163636, 9134.178571, 9073.822581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9598.0, "trend_reference": 8980.583333, "distance_from_trend": 0.06875, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8024.221492, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.196128, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.370859, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.099994, "excess_performance": 0.048759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06875, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027931, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.196128, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050167, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003709, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00792, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099994, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.113338, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2385, "relative_activity": 2.016658, "balance": 7.113338, "dry_up": 0.941107, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015695, "annualized_volatility": 0.135297, "from_high_reference": -0.161061, "from_low_reference": 0.180566 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8980.583333, "fair_value_reference": 8024.221492, "structural_low": 8518.674805, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.001465, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.001709, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.079413, "worst_return": -0.074494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.017989, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.012736, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.054618, "worst_return": -0.060166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.061122, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.066275, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.066716, "worst_return": -0.087337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.394161, "energy": 34.178554, "activity_lines": [ 9033.133333, 9013.290909, 8999.52381, 8956.3 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9141.0, "volume": 1844, "typical_volume": 1350.1, "trend": 8871.916667, "fair_value": 7987.204267, "relative_strength": -1.975266, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.750844, "energy": 45.053691, "activity_lines": [ 9071.6, 9036.172727, 9014.740476, 8975.580645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9297.5, "volume": 70, "typical_volume": 1343.95, "trend": 8904.833333, "fair_value": 7997.865028, "relative_strength": -1.46281, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.751425, "energy": 71.964038, "activity_lines": [ 9152.833333, 9085.672727, 9045.6, 9003.037634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9344.0, "volume": 153, "typical_volume": 1181.9, "trend": 8940.0, "fair_value": 8009.800208, "relative_strength": -2.068613, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.524028, "energy": 80.723732, "activity_lines": [ 9233.9, 9139.881818, 9079.047619, 9031.370968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9598.0, "volume": 2385, "typical_volume": 1182.65, "trend": 8980.583333, "fair_value": 8024.221492, "relative_strength": 0.370859, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.373929, "energy": 93.860219, "activity_lines": [ 9375.8, 9234.163636, 9134.178571, 9073.822581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }