{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37cefedd-1e1c-4f67-be0e-0215583a95da", "symbol": "SGI", "name": "Somnigroup International Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.819, "architecture_energy": 61.447, "architecture_maturity": 14.566, "architecture_confidence": 83.094, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.81, "rotation_up": 13.38, "upward_expansion": 14.52, "deceleration": 35.87, "rotation_down": 68.2, "downward_expansion": 85.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.084, 71.001455, 71.599713, 73.433186 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 65.25, "trend_reference": 77.409575, "distance_from_trend": -0.157081, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 62.314387, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.04711, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.683597, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.319459, "excess_performance": -0.445084, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157081, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073275, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.04711, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110145, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286836, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05174, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.319459, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.032892, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16853911, "relative_activity": 1.180467, "balance": 1.032892, "dry_up": 0.858265, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097801, "annualized_volatility": 0.407143, "from_high_reference": -0.334926, "from_low_reference": 0.083208 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.409575, "fair_value_reference": 62.314387, "structural_low": 60.237749, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.047704, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.050163, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.292568, "worst_return": -0.220379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.078577, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.018937, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.125995, "worst_return": -0.335325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.112448, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.069198, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.420879, "worst_return": -0.272768, "sufficient": false }, { 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76.114667, 73.149198, 73.65315, 76.667382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 73.55, "volume": 11349972, "typical_volume": 14065996.7, "trend": 80.329749, "fair_value": 61.692849, "relative_strength": -19.0131, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.707959, "energy": 16.05591, "activity_lines": [ 75.849333, 73.495077, 73.471666, 76.187459 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 72.73, "volume": 7555397, "typical_volume": 14011893.95, "trend": 79.772111, "fair_value": 61.872895, "relative_strength": -18.407916, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.769097, "energy": 14.383853, "activity_lines": [ 74.941333, 73.725309, 73.294148, 75.697153 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 71.56, "volume": 9554884, "typical_volume": 13892607.75, "trend": 79.113093, "fair_value": 62.045005, "relative_strength": -18.977005, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.807112, "energy": 16.283889, "activity_lines": [ 73.611333, 73.677455, 73.083158, 75.167339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.33, "volume": 15050688, "typical_volume": 14070480.15, "trend": 78.346283, "fair_value": 62.178051, "relative_strength": -26.490101, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.650622, "energy": 39.728598, "activity_lines": [ 70.440667, 72.332545, 72.318064, 74.278108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.25, "volume": 16853911, "typical_volume": 14277320.6, "trend": 77.409575, "fair_value": 62.314387, "relative_strength": -28.683597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.819381, "energy": 61.446913, "activity_lines": [ 68.084, 71.001455, 71.599713, 73.433186 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }