{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37d2faf1-6644-4eb8-97fb-9f86c0cd142f", "symbol": "JT13E", "name": "UBS BBG Japan Gov 1-3 UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.166, "architecture_energy": 48.028, "architecture_maturity": 65.703, "architecture_confidence": 60.308, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.94, "rotation_up": 47.47, "upward_expansion": 78.73, "deceleration": 66.79, "rotation_down": 26.29, "downward_expansion": 7.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.0276, 11.025018, 11.013057, 10.999703 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.022, "trend_reference": 10.980533, "distance_from_trend": 0.003776, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.71502, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02865, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.892792, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008417, "excess_performance": -0.162475, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003776, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002843, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.02865, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002592, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138928, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022593, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008417, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.780478, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2347, "relative_activity": 0.298092, "balance": 2.780478, "dry_up": 0.480891, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001787, "annualized_volatility": 0.007387, "from_high_reference": -0.002353, "from_low_reference": 0.01604 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.980533, "fair_value_reference": 10.71502, "structural_low": 10.902, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.000933, "positive_rate": 0.789474, "directional_follow_through": 0.789474, "median_excess_return": -0.025087, "regime_survival": 0.947368, "best_return": 0.005956, "worst_return": -0.000549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00379, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.064401, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.009111, "worst_return": 0.002195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.007555, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.149538, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.012311, "worst_return": 0.007498, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 10.970267, "fair_value": 10.699866, "relative_strength": -12.105023, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.036336, "energy": 52.695624, "activity_lines": [ 11.022133, 11.016873, 11.002238, 10.988714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.042, "volume": 3194, "typical_volume": 8554.4, "trend": 10.974, "fair_value": 10.705007, "relative_strength": -11.384777, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.83983, "energy": 64.843678, "activity_lines": [ 11.0292, 11.022618, 11.007324, 10.993342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.028, "volume": 1656, "typical_volume": 8485.35, "trend": 10.9774, "fair_value": 10.710135, "relative_strength": -11.696794, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.94885, "energy": 52.734608, "activity_lines": [ 11.03, 11.024764, 11.010648, 10.996826 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.022, "volume": 2347, "typical_volume": 7873.4, "trend": 10.980533, "fair_value": 10.71502, "relative_strength": -13.892792, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.166463, "energy": 48.028111, "activity_lines": [ 11.0276, 11.025018, 11.013057, 10.999703 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }