{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37d4437e-366c-4b9c-88df-d397fe1b362a", "symbol": "ORISSAMINE", "name": "The Orissa Minerals Development Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 24.801, "architecture_energy": 13.318, "architecture_maturity": 24.307, "architecture_confidence": 60.016, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.12, "rotation_up": 43.59, "upward_expansion": 26.88, "deceleration": 38.96, "rotation_down": 30.46, "downward_expansion": 31.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 4026.480029, 3969.658203, 3995.314772, 3976.45829 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4405.200195, "trend_reference": 4026.06001, "distance_from_trend": 0.094172, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5781.049697, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.237993, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.044968, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.004263, "excess_performance": 0.047972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094172, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074557, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.237993, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011285, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00045, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051388, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004263, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.384099, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 142132, "relative_activity": 1.603388, "balance": 2.384099, "dry_up": 1.094585, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057996, "annualized_volatility": 0.376289, "from_high_reference": -0.282412, "from_low_reference": 0.420803 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4026.06001, "fair_value_reference": 5781.049697, "structural_low": 3100.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.005067, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": 0.008352, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.239463, "worst_return": -0.198371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.001849, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017627, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.23698, "worst_return": -0.136733, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.181569, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.103324, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.720497, "worst_return": 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3986.399902, "volume": 196899, "typical_volume": 86229.55, "trend": 4039.88667, "fair_value": 5780.311234, "relative_strength": -8.994849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.719535, "energy": 48.418379, "activity_lines": [ 3834.366618, 3884.801802, 3948.545705, 3952.889676 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4405.200195, "volume": 142132, "typical_volume": 88644.8, "trend": 4026.06001, "fair_value": 5781.049697, "relative_strength": -0.044968, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.801186, "energy": 13.318248, "activity_lines": [ 4026.480029, 3969.658203, 3995.314772, 3976.45829 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }