{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37d972ea-7de8-488c-80de-02f80b75acf9", "symbol": "VIVIDHA", "name": "Visagar Polytex Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.189, "architecture_energy": 36.122, "architecture_maturity": 76.501, "architecture_confidence": 91.679, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.22, "rotation_up": 17.23, "upward_expansion": 5.7, "deceleration": 43.93, "rotation_down": 51.79, "downward_expansion": 79.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.521333, 0.526182, 0.535143, 0.541097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.52, "trend_reference": 0.551, "distance_from_trend": -0.056261, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.900321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.422428, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.062908, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.087719, "excess_performance": -0.04401, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056261, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095238, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.422428, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004477, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170629, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042389, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.087719, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.178838, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1334532, "relative_activity": 0.919052, "balance": 1.178838, "dry_up": 0.826305, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088757, "annualized_volatility": 0.572348, "from_high_reference": -0.428571, "from_low_reference": 0.209302 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.551, "fair_value_reference": 0.900321, "structural_low": 0.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.011628, "positive_rate": 0.314286, "directional_follow_through": 0.514286, "median_excess_return": -0.025106, "regime_survival": 0.885714, "best_return": 0.3125, "worst_return": -0.157895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.052632, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.061714, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 2.0, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.148026, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.153475, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.125, "worst_return": -0.265306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.294118, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.227273, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066038, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.081818, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.204082, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088608, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.277778, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.95, "volume": 3994340, "typical_volume": 3142111.3, "trend": 0.911667, "fair_value": 1.110577, "relative_strength": -16.026193, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.996586, 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0.544571, 0.551398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.51, "volume": 1059412, "typical_volume": 1558460.55, "trend": 0.561667, "fair_value": 0.906923, "relative_strength": -19.656183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.667445, "energy": 36.618546, "activity_lines": [ 0.528, 0.532909, 0.541, 0.547677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.53, "volume": 1209240, "typical_volume": 1480138.95, "trend": 0.557, "fair_value": 0.905192, "relative_strength": -13.859167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.132749, "energy": 30.653209, "activity_lines": [ 0.526667, 0.532, 0.539571, 0.545634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.52, "volume": 1196237, "typical_volume": 1456120.1, "trend": 0.553333, "fair_value": 0.903077, "relative_strength": -16.951743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.505007, "energy": 36.221579, "activity_lines": [ 0.523333, 0.528909, 0.537143, 0.543247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.52, "volume": 1334532, "typical_volume": 1452073.75, "trend": 0.551, "fair_value": 0.900321, "relative_strength": -17.062908, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.189271, "energy": 36.121706, "activity_lines": [ 0.521333, 0.526182, 0.535143, 0.541097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }