{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "37da73cf-72be-40f6-a0c4-777fca30e58a",
    "symbol": "IJPN",
    "name": "iShares MSCI Japan UCITS ETF USD (Dist)",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 59.809,
    "architecture_energy": 32.112,
    "architecture_maturity": 56.829,
    "architecture_confidence": 84.899,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 26.29,
        "rotation_up": 38.21,
        "upward_expansion": 60.82,
        "deceleration": 85.39,
        "rotation_down": 26.66,
        "downward_expansion": 19.82
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        21.301052,
        21.324339,
        21.054065,
        20.70478
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 21.9,
    "trend_reference": 20.28763,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.079476,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 16.625633,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.317243,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -1.973305,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.1083,
    "excess_performance": -0.062592,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.079476,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.054667,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.317243,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.034157,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.019733,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.027261,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.1083,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 5.923457,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 264197,
      "relative_activity": 0.965113,
      "balance": 5.923457,
      "dry_up": 0.686643,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.032035,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.199062,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002886,
      "from_low_reference": 0.305692
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 20.28763,
      "fair_value_reference": 16.625633,
      "structural_low": 18.288,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.025776,
        "positive_rate": 0.692308,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.692308,
        "median_excess_return": 0.009466,
        "regime_survival": 0.538462,
        "best_return": 0.084808,
        "worst_return": -0.04138,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.003788,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006572,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.150095,
        "worst_return": -0.06279,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.014121,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006362,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.10656,
        "worst_return": -0.085963,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.012576,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.046175,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.280257,
        "worst_return": -0.13628,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.085714,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.012053,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-06",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.036227,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.014415,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.034344,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.002616,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.077424,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.013558,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.029305,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.053528,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.078973,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.048566,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.055617,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 289863.7,
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        "fair_value": 16.523699,
        "relative_strength": -1.92563,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 20.934999,
        "volume": 116464,
        "typical_volume": 276749.55,
        "trend": 20.191575,
        "fair_value": 16.571346,
        "relative_strength": -3.508251,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.388346,
        "energy": 23.731565,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 21.9,
        "volume": 264197,
        "typical_volume": 273747.2,
        "trend": 20.28763,
        "fair_value": 16.625633,
        "relative_strength": -1.973305,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.808697,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}