{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37def1a2-4bfd-4082-96e3-7a0f297166a7", "symbol": "EESM", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI Europe Small Caps SRI PAB UCITS ETF Capitalisation", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.92, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.759, "architecture_energy": 88.048, "architecture_maturity": 30.389, "architecture_confidence": 78.763, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.9, "rotation_up": 75.43, "upward_expansion": 98.95, "deceleration": 39.57, "rotation_down": 17.58, "downward_expansion": 20.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 336.740004, 334.149999, 330.023332, 325.301612 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 338.450012, "trend_reference": 320.848333, "distance_from_trend": 0.05486, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 288.04327, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.174997, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.820373, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.060307, "excess_performance": -0.110585, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05486, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036243, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.174997, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022783, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068204, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004847, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060307, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.948872, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.948872, "dry_up": 1.570462, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013523, "annualized_volatility": 0.13135, "from_high_reference": -0.01269, "from_low_reference": 0.17131 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 320.848333, "fair_value_reference": 288.04327, "structural_low": 292.850006, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.009158, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.034564, "worst_return": -0.087268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.001735, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.062702, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.029712, "worst_return": -0.014995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029013, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.108583, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.061471, "worst_return": -0.075856, "sufficient": true }, { 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287.062501, "relative_strength": -5.180441, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.156627, "energy": 82.59877, "activity_lines": [ 333.373326, 331.399085, 326.743806, 322.778492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 338.450012, "volume": 80, "typical_volume": 136.65, "trend": 319.546665, "fair_value": 287.552886, "relative_strength": -4.322318, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.672125, "energy": 86.057639, "activity_lines": [ 335.486666, 332.879088, 328.47095, 324.082041 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 338.450012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 125.6, "trend": 320.848333, "fair_value": 288.04327, "relative_strength": -6.820373, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.75897, "energy": 88.048205, "activity_lines": [ 336.740004, 334.149999, 330.023332, 325.301612 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }