{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37e40260-5ffe-4ca8-94c0-0cd36520dfe6", "symbol": "600697", "name": "Chang Chun Eurasia Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.931, "architecture_energy": 43.554, "architecture_maturity": 92.931, "architecture_confidence": 62.787, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.14, "rotation_up": 25.15, "upward_expansion": 18.02, "deceleration": 66.94, "rotation_down": 45.66, "downward_expansion": 68.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.034, 10.028674, 10.624693, 11.130697 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.38, "trend_reference": 11.874461, "distance_from_trend": -0.125855, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.888643, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.126898, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.566238, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.24344, "excess_performance": -0.200236, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125855, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087633, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.126898, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185883, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165662, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067748, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.24344, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.50093, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16867914, "relative_activity": 1.153099, "balance": 0.50093, "dry_up": 1.326442, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076974, "annualized_volatility": 0.297961, "from_high_reference": -0.392272, "from_low_reference": 0.128261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.874461, "fair_value_reference": 11.888643, "structural_low": 9.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.01312, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.019202, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.184375, "worst_return": -0.161545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.090454, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.018242, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.256711, "worst_return": -0.199136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.106123, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.030615, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.185126, "worst_return": -0.086789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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11.365356, 11.870415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.85, "volume": 15378809, "typical_volume": 14934775.15, "trend": 12.369461, "fair_value": 11.942078, "relative_strength": -23.611756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.669294, "energy": 89.182243, "activity_lines": [ 9.980882, 10.514408, 11.172814, 11.700321 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.96, "volume": 18866142, "typical_volume": 14956385.65, "trend": 12.278795, "fair_value": 11.93097, "relative_strength": -17.567896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.007633, "energy": 80.387176, "activity_lines": [ 9.926924, 10.31852, 11.009271, 11.544872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.32, "volume": 24024751, "typical_volume": 14885956.15, "trend": 12.092795, "fair_value": 11.91369, "relative_strength": -23.399806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.188529, "energy": 67.065506, "activity_lines": [ 9.720816, 10.05645, 10.802206, 11.353982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.22, "volume": 17855750, "typical_volume": 14861759.25, "trend": 11.968128, "fair_value": 11.902849, "relative_strength": -15.977796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.294509, "energy": 56.222523, "activity_lines": [ 9.869728, 10.010926, 10.699473, 11.233156 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.38, "volume": 16867914, "typical_volume": 14628330.65, "trend": 11.874461, "fair_value": 11.888643, "relative_strength": -16.566238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.930876, "energy": 43.554016, "activity_lines": [ 10.034, 10.028674, 10.624693, 11.130697 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }