{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37e43e3b-437c-4179-81fe-c62ffab69bd8", "symbol": "EMUESG", "name": "UBS MSCI EMU Universal UCITS ETF EUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.999, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.09, "architecture_energy": 69.14, "architecture_maturity": 57.391, "architecture_confidence": 64.941, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.27, "rotation_up": 56.34, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 67.34, "rotation_down": 27.57, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.476, 27.329818, 26.76119, 26.201193 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.105, "trend_reference": 25.625833, "distance_from_trend": 0.096745, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.171532, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.32749, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.025002, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.114614, "excess_performance": -0.056277, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096745, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043992, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.32749, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069432, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02025, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021449, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114614, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.368062, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 133, "relative_activity": 0.024917, "balance": 0.368062, "dry_up": 0.148472, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019734, "annualized_volatility": 0.161297, "from_high_reference": -0.003722, "from_low_reference": 0.252172 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.625833, "fair_value_reference": 21.171532, "structural_low": 22.705, "invalidation": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.406997, "energy": 88.217848, "activity_lines": [ 26.858666, 26.422181, 25.691095, 25.373193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 27.709999, "volume": 19, "typical_volume": 5417.95, "trend": 25.094666, "fair_value": 20.840378, "relative_strength": -2.231823, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.689122, "energy": 93.746529, "activity_lines": [ 27.199999, 26.725999, 25.927738, 25.550462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.18, "volume": 1067, "typical_volume": 5471.3, "trend": 25.201833, "fair_value": 20.905711, "relative_strength": -3.5884, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.720622, "energy": 86.63712, "activity_lines": [ 27.266666, 26.884636, 26.102023, 25.685 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.895, "volume": 1430, "typical_volume": 5542.8, "trend": 25.2995, "fair_value": 20.969218, "relative_strength": -3.151353, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.730581, "energy": 79.518935, "activity_lines": [ 27.174333, 26.952636, 26.239809, 25.794236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.035, "volume": 183, "typical_volume": 5532.1, "trend": 25.401833, "fair_value": 21.033622, "relative_strength": -2.425813, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.560448, "energy": 62.614129, "activity_lines": [ 27.115333, 27.022182, 26.382928, 25.906204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.385, "volume": 1424, "typical_volume": 5574.8, "trend": 25.515833, "fair_value": 21.100269, "relative_strength": -1.76689, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.569753, "energy": 58.738908, "activity_lines": [ 27.188, 27.122272, 26.546047, 26.03415 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.105, "volume": 133, "typical_volume": 5337.7, "trend": 25.625833, "fair_value": 21.171532, "relative_strength": -2.025002, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.089532, "energy": 69.139566, "activity_lines": [ 27.476, 27.329818, 26.76119, 26.201193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }