{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37e4c3b0-4f4b-4e1f-ba03-19618ea0c01a", "symbol": "ETBB", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy Euro Stoxx 50 UCITS ETF EUR C/D", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.635, "architecture_energy": 70.568, "architecture_maturity": 33.144, "architecture_confidence": 92.2, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 62.92, "upward_expansion": 86.13, "deceleration": 53.73, "rotation_down": 23.24, "downward_expansion": 12.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.764134, 15.649091, 15.30134, 15.01459 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.148001, "trend_reference": 14.738208, "distance_from_trend": 0.095656, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.350816, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.307444, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.078024, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.110835, "excess_performance": 0.057523, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095656, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03934, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.307444, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090209, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.06078, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011605, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110835, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.360301, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 130958, "relative_activity": 0.86165, "balance": 3.360301, "dry_up": 0.609643, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023276, "annualized_volatility": 0.176219, "from_high_reference": -0.003948, "from_low_reference": 0.264252 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.738208, "fair_value_reference": 12.350816, "structural_low": 13.045361, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.004554, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.006122, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.100105, "worst_return": -0.08811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.007366, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.008003, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.127746, "worst_return": -0.099179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.072739, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.041777, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.114729, "worst_return": -0.163225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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15.494, "volume": 33970, "typical_volume": 179195.0, "trend": 14.530492, "fair_value": 12.204083, "relative_strength": 7.291396, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.478244, "energy": 81.316173, "activity_lines": [ 15.555333, 15.328522, 14.91583, 14.733134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.402, "volume": 96426, "typical_volume": 171812.95, "trend": 14.578672, "fair_value": 12.238737, "relative_strength": 6.425535, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.157301, "energy": 72.121185, "activity_lines": [ 15.521733, 15.382331, 14.992113, 14.789361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.528, "volume": 43831, "typical_volume": 162011.55, "trend": 14.63261, "fair_value": 12.272953, "relative_strength": 6.623558, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.165855, "energy": 61.334119, "activity_lines": [ 15.519733, 15.442327, 15.077955, 14.850608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.71, "volume": 99412, "typical_volume": 157737.05, "trend": 14.683658, "fair_value": 12.310381, "relative_strength": 5.90695, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.92394, "energy": 55.295377, "activity_lines": [ 15.580133, 15.513782, 15.173229, 14.920117 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.148001, "volume": 130958, "typical_volume": 151985.2, "trend": 14.738208, "fair_value": 12.350816, "relative_strength": 6.078024, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.634928, "energy": 70.568041, "activity_lines": [ 15.764134, 15.649091, 15.30134, 15.01459 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }