{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37e586e9-bd2f-4755-b488-80974197f7a9", "symbol": "VDC", "name": "VANGUARD WORLD FUND VANGUARD CONSUMER STAPLES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.641, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.105, "architecture_energy": 9.798, "architecture_maturity": 10.764, "architecture_confidence": 68.777, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.17, "rotation_up": 43.12, "upward_expansion": 40.4, "deceleration": 29.38, "rotation_down": 26.1, "downward_expansion": 15.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 229.904, 229.415855, 228.593739, 228.682239 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 231.22, "trend_reference": 229.033746, "distance_from_trend": 0.009546, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 206.353286, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120506, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.229038, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028533, "excess_performance": -0.154158, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009546, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026378, "read": "Rising" 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218.83167, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.002035, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.002332, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.065878, "worst_return": -0.095305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008335, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.010417, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.098525, "worst_return": -0.055851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.065361, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.017909, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.086663, "worst_return": 0.034508, 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533877, "typical_volume": 817990.15, "trend": 227.26718, "fair_value": 205.493956, "relative_strength": -4.564479, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.89602, "energy": 20.912769, "activity_lines": [ 229.314615, 228.454556, 227.95082, 228.33131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 227.32, "volume": 751448, "typical_volume": 798039.15, "trend": 227.786986, "fair_value": 205.7533, "relative_strength": -5.049196, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.978405, "energy": 18.711305, "activity_lines": [ 228.856667, 228.329267, 227.929763, 228.334718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 230.43, "volume": 704598, "typical_volume": 769504.55, "trend": 228.47643, "fair_value": 206.052621, "relative_strength": -4.576011, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.244728, "energy": 10.129746, "activity_lines": [ 229.274667, 228.818559, 228.224883, 228.505235 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 231.22, "volume": 740716, "typical_volume": 768677.5, "trend": 229.033746, "fair_value": 206.353286, "relative_strength": -7.229038, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.105037, "energy": 9.798475, "activity_lines": [ 229.904, 229.415855, 228.593739, 228.682239 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }