{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37e5ea7d-82c2-41b2-aada-2e04f75a0bd0", "symbol": "SKIL", "name": "Skillsoft Corp.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.444, "architecture_energy": 47.054, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.304, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.17, "rotation_up": 55.86, "upward_expansion": 82.14, "deceleration": 48.23, "rotation_down": 21.76, "downward_expansion": 13.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.53, 7.185818, 7.048619, 6.670194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.1, "trend_reference": 6.549667, "distance_from_trend": 0.389384, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.094397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.354353, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.292483, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.165173, "excess_performance": 0.039548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.389384, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08796, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.354353, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104718, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092925, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.245674, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.165173, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.039965, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 290323, "relative_activity": 0.422815, "balance": 1.039965, "dry_up": 0.475268, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.177791, "annualized_volatility": 1.215588, "from_high_reference": -0.506775, "from_low_reference": 1.653061 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.549667, "fair_value_reference": 14.094397, "structural_low": 3.43, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.178808, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.158418, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.603682, "worst_return": -0.389744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.282378, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.273752, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.690398, "worst_return": -0.378531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.158028, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.231561, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.870155, "worst_return": -0.276684, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052063, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.260614, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.19704, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.228653, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.220012, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044822, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.222077, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.541507, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032922, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.506623, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 25.6, "volume": 579925, "typical_volume": 1180735.6, "trend": 30.866667, "fair_value": 128.983333, "relative_strength": -30.592085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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"direction": -11.178855, "energy": 9.048798, "activity_lines": [ 6.7, 6.941455, 6.437095, 6.454688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 7.06, "volume": 1084275, "typical_volume": 772790.4, "trend": 6.653333, "fair_value": 14.739846, "relative_strength": -34.115478, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.280096, "energy": 5.226049, "activity_lines": [ 6.781333, 6.932182, 6.548667, 6.480516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.12, "volume": 504237, "typical_volume": 760404.25, "trend": 6.687, "fair_value": 14.611128, "relative_strength": -33.010163, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.345372, "energy": 7.144581, "activity_lines": [ 6.898, 6.922364, 6.659476, 6.510624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.44, "volume": 468632, "typical_volume": 731467.75, "trend": 6.643667, "fair_value": 14.463949, "relative_strength": -37.000184, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.893678, "energy": 2.983198, "activity_lines": [ 6.783333, 6.81, 6.696143, 6.494688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.35, "volume": 235045, "typical_volume": 708123.15, "trend": 6.616333, "fair_value": 14.337987, "relative_strength": -36.200981, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.132145, "energy": 1.809736, "activity_lines": [ 6.612, 6.72, 6.713524, 6.475742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.1, "volume": 311360, "typical_volume": 700003.6, "trend": 6.569667, "fair_value": 14.210423, "relative_strength": -27.922025, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.599443, "energy": 3.028509, "activity_lines": [ 6.768, 6.770364, 6.793905, 6.506946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.1, "volume": 290323, "typical_volume": 686643.8, "trend": 6.549667, "fair_value": 14.094397, "relative_strength": -9.292483, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.44372, "energy": 47.053563, "activity_lines": [ 7.53, 7.185818, 7.048619, 6.670194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }