{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37f4e1e8-59e5-482b-9ba8-a70b90d33726", "symbol": "1C0", "name": "Emerging Towns & Cities Singapore Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.019, "architecture_energy": 84.765, "architecture_maturity": 59.077, "architecture_confidence": 91.962, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.12, "rotation_up": 22.95, "upward_expansion": 21.48, "deceleration": 37.23, "rotation_down": 66.89, "downward_expansion": 99.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.016267, 0.017382, 0.020024, 0.023022 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.016, "trend_reference": 0.026767, "distance_from_trend": -0.402242, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.032609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.509338, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.545127, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.529412, "excess_performance": -0.684247, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.402242, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161795, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.509338, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.218966, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.555451, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205407, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.529412, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.176547, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2544800, "relative_activity": 0.124941, "balance": 1.176547, "dry_up": 0.131262, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1875, "annualized_volatility": 0.47003, "from_high_reference": -0.644444, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.026767, "fair_value_reference": 0.032609, "structural_low": 0.014, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.12465, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.189719, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.045455, "worst_return": -0.3125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.5, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.602342, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.5, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.5, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.034, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 0.034, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.0166, 0.018, 0.02079, 0.023755 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.016, "volume": 2544800, "typical_volume": 20368040.0, "trend": 0.026767, "fair_value": 0.032609, "relative_strength": -55.545127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.019387, "energy": 84.765306, "activity_lines": [ 0.016267, 0.017382, 0.020024, 0.023022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }