{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37f88ca5-5d92-4415-a619-cf628b9026c2", "symbol": "IFN", "name": "India Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 84.158, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 3.038, "architecture_energy": 9.549, "architecture_maturity": 11.613, "architecture_confidence": 69.601, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.53, "rotation_up": 33.48, "upward_expansion": 34.74, "deceleration": 33.8, "rotation_down": 19.05, "downward_expansion": 40.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.655333, 11.595091, 11.491436, 11.543603 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.82, "trend_reference": 11.779098, "distance_from_trend": 0.003472, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.978553, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.089267, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.160379, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.099915, "excess_performance": -0.22554, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003472, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044173, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.089267, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006315, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.151604, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048277, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.099915, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.790235, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 591773, "relative_activity": 0.752389, "balance": 0.790235, "dry_up": 0.828278, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033764, "annualized_volatility": 0.2303, "from_high_reference": -0.14028, "from_low_reference": 0.127677 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.779098, "fair_value_reference": 12.978553, "structural_low": 10.481729, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.008221, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.006444, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.074949, "worst_return": -0.166054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.019508, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.028618, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.101045, "worst_return": -0.085784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.030563, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.07802, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.179546, "worst_return": -0.185338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.005719, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.011291, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.351177, "worst_return": -0.165116, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019704, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057158, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048025, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014851, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -4e-05, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018473, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029842, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030338, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035254, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025859, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.027338, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018966, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.258241, "volume": 478184, "typical_volume": 452580.2, "trend": 10.610747, "fair_value": 10.16206, "relative_strength": 0.820756, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"down", "direction": -13.246708, "energy": 18.708966, "activity_lines": [ 11.592, 11.426781, 11.405707, 11.61523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.5, "volume": 463351, "typical_volume": 890160.85, "trend": 11.916678, "fair_value": 12.973573, "relative_strength": -15.704722, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.257502, "energy": 15.405633, "activity_lines": [ 11.588667, 11.449029, 11.410156, 11.585221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.43, "volume": 854959, "typical_volume": 854106.7, "trend": 11.868054, "fair_value": 12.972755, "relative_strength": -15.182723, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.861027, "energy": 11.730851, "activity_lines": [ 11.527333, 11.462364, 11.414462, 11.553822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.71, "volume": 695764, "typical_volume": 825897.7, "trend": 11.820339, "fair_value": 12.974603, "relative_strength": -13.503062, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.869185, "energy": 7.092493, "activity_lines": [ 11.578, 11.522727, 11.448287, 11.543625 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.82, "volume": 591773, "typical_volume": 786525.5, "trend": 11.779098, "fair_value": 12.978553, "relative_strength": -15.160379, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.03829, "energy": 9.548885, "activity_lines": [ 11.655333, 11.595091, 11.491436, 11.543603 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }