{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37f8c5ec-e833-468b-8d9f-2610657ed4c0", "symbol": "NTG", "name": "Nabaltec AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.435, "architecture_energy": 26.167, "architecture_maturity": 57.692, "architecture_confidence": 79.706, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.05, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 63.94, "deceleration": 88.3, "rotation_down": 26.93, "downward_expansion": 16.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.38, 12.52303, 12.03633, 11.756129 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.15, "trend_reference": 11.622402, "distance_from_trend": 0.045395, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.897851, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.125764, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.117026, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0125, "excess_performance": -0.05214, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045395, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002519, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.125764, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179243, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08117, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146693, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0125, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.849565, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21350, "relative_activity": 0.70389, "balance": 4.849565, "dry_up": 0.691568, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059682, "annualized_volatility": 0.319162, "from_high_reference": -0.192691, "from_low_reference": 0.208955 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.622402, "fair_value_reference": 13.897851, "structural_low": 10.05, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.003165, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.042617, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.071186, "worst_return": -0.234828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.030405, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.066442, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.023104, "worst_return": -0.196154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.138213, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.163307, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.077844, "worst_return": -0.321448, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 13.2, "volume": 32893, "typical_volume": 38881.95, "trend": 11.619069, "fair_value": 14.0571, "relative_strength": 3.187553, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.743319, "energy": 81.483449, "activity_lines": [ 12.919799, 12.372768, 11.646989, 11.565244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.65, "volume": 30170, "typical_volume": 38607.75, "trend": 11.637402, "fair_value": 14.014878, "relative_strength": 0.150906, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.824675, "energy": 68.986468, "activity_lines": [ 12.891044, 12.518923, 11.776169, 11.631755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.35, "volume": 19252, "typical_volume": 34413.65, "trend": 11.644069, "fair_value": 13.972897, "relative_strength": -2.922219, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.231856, "energy": 54.24261, "activity_lines": [ 12.736667, 12.563563, 11.876302, 11.677729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.35, "volume": 13133, "typical_volume": 31084.75, "trend": 11.640736, "fair_value": 13.93617, "relative_strength": -4.542333, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.938258, "energy": 42.934673, "activity_lines": [ 12.576667, 12.572907, 11.970007, 11.723273 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.15, "volume": 21350, "typical_volume": 30331.45, "trend": 11.622402, "fair_value": 13.897851, "relative_strength": -8.117026, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.434587, "energy": 26.166518, "activity_lines": [ 12.38, 12.52303, 12.03633, 11.756129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }