{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37f95037-88d9-46b4-9864-a46f82892806", "symbol": "CHGG", "name": "Chegg Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 64.209, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 4.443, "architecture_energy": 13.722, "architecture_maturity": 26.616, "architecture_confidence": 62.469, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.04, "rotation_up": 18.36, "upward_expansion": 41.43, "deceleration": 75.44, "rotation_down": 36.44, "downward_expansion": 35.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.92546, 0.957144, 1.031569, 0.978801 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.9157, "trend_reference": 0.905707, "distance_from_trend": 0.011034, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.332032, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.725183, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.083858, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.158527, "excess_performance": 0.032902, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011034, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015803, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.725183, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012149, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210839, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153854, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.158527, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.410584, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9383494, "relative_activity": 1.104191, "balance": 0.410584, "dry_up": 0.80575, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.246911, "annualized_volatility": 1.255181, "from_high_reference": -0.518053, "from_low_reference": 1.034889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.905707, "fair_value_reference": 3.332032, "structural_low": 0.45, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.169003, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.202329, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.148761, "worst_return": -0.222118, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.367991, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.426459, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.367991, "worst_return": -0.367991, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.649922, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.788566, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.649922, "worst_return": -0.649922, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.306122, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.245399, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.425, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097403, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.159528, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.183486, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.119565, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.383929, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.198473, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.189646, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.0, "volume": 15730310, "typical_volume": 20439487.35, "trend": 13.249333, "fair_value": 45.504679, "relative_strength": -49.043414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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-4.634153, "energy": 18.555852, "activity_lines": [ 0.9223, 1.025682, 1.039429, 0.969801 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.9619, "volume": 6614154, "typical_volume": 8082995.7, "trend": 0.906667, "fair_value": 3.452169, "relative_strength": -14.734691, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.61008, "energy": 19.184502, "activity_lines": [ 0.91896, 1.000216, 1.039332, 0.973299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.983, "volume": 5810856, "typical_volume": 8234733.3, "trend": 0.906753, "fair_value": 3.391226, "relative_strength": -13.00574, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.842198, "energy": 17.167642, "activity_lines": [ 0.928527, 0.979644, 1.039641, 0.978224 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9157, "volume": 9383494, "typical_volume": 8498068.8, "trend": 0.905707, "fair_value": 3.332032, "relative_strength": -21.083858, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.442619, "energy": 13.72156, "activity_lines": [ 0.92546, 0.957144, 1.031569, 0.978801 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }