{ "ticker": { "uuid": "37fa6811-d837-4dd2-b258-0ec68110ba1d", "symbol": "MLP", "name": "MLP SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.841, "architecture_energy": 41.871, "architecture_maturity": 13.695, "architecture_confidence": 71.577, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.62, "rotation_up": 48.87, "upward_expansion": 75.65, "deceleration": 56.29, "rotation_down": 19.88, "downward_expansion": 9.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.658667, 7.603445, 7.595515, 7.525958 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.79, "trend_reference": 7.446073, "distance_from_trend": 0.046189, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.316475, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.233283, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.50221, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.062756, "excess_performance": -0.111491, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046189, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039104, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.233283, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016208, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125022, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014675, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062756, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 2.942977, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031763, "annualized_volatility": 0.241688, "from_high_reference": -0.058041, "from_low_reference": 0.287603 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.446073, "fair_value_reference": 6.316475, "structural_low": 6.79, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.01186, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01619, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.149425, "worst_return": -0.154523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.079131, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.000199, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.193825, "worst_return": -0.194724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.101427, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.140643, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.495712, "worst_return": -0.248036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.230262, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040928, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058055, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019231, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.176565, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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54.25123, "energy": 36.514158, "activity_lines": [ 7.665349, 7.6378, 7.492763, 7.407401 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 7.664076, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 567.75, "trend": 7.29574, "fair_value": 6.201498, "relative_strength": -18.180411, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.914593, "energy": 34.153085, "activity_lines": [ 7.667894, 7.646939, 7.517589, 7.434012 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 7.42, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 566.45, "trend": 7.31974, "fair_value": 6.215811, "relative_strength": -18.495761, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.180307, "energy": 17.312448, "activity_lines": [ 7.581445, 7.60599, 7.517959, 7.442029 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 7.55, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 566.45, "trend": 7.344407, "fair_value": 6.231951, "relative_strength": -18.248183, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.47538, "energy": 14.959889, "activity_lines": [ 7.553965, 7.599404, 7.530282, 7.456884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 566.45, "trend": 7.36474, "fair_value": 6.24742, "relative_strength": -16.88642, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.542788, "energy": 14.958294, "activity_lines": [ 7.528876, 7.578687, 7.53651, 7.466923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.51, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 626.45, "trend": 7.386407, "fair_value": 6.262661, "relative_strength": -14.277757, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.253822, "energy": 16.471192, "activity_lines": [ 7.513605, 7.561903, 7.542928, 7.476294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.39, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 576.45, "trend": 7.403073, "fair_value": 6.277308, "relative_strength": -15.903293, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.210091, "energy": 8.839181, "activity_lines": [ 7.467333, 7.525062, 7.536679, 7.476526 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.81, "volume": 7646, "typical_volume": 807.85, "trend": 7.43074, "fair_value": 6.295991, "relative_strength": -10.382095, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.349405, "energy": 21.941907, "activity_lines": [ 7.579333, 7.567485, 7.568812, 7.50278 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.79, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 751.45, "trend": 7.446073, "fair_value": 6.316475, "relative_strength": -12.50221, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.840557, "energy": 41.870834, "activity_lines": [ 7.658667, 7.603445, 7.595515, 7.525958 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }