{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "37fca69c-16f5-4bbe-ba48-3db3aed32718",
    "symbol": "BJUN",
    "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - June",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 60.036,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 77.644,
    "architecture_energy": 50.052,
    "architecture_maturity": 11.416,
    "architecture_confidence": 69.92,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 26.92,
        "rotation_up": 61.27,
        "upward_expansion": 79.44,
        "deceleration": 55.39,
        "rotation_down": 17.96,
        "downward_expansion": 6.11
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        49.041507,
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        48.623795,
        48.268038
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      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 49.8876,
    "trend_reference": 47.844793,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.042697,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 41.598085,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.199276,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -5.449249,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.056406,
    "excess_performance": -0.069219,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042697,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.015404,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.199276,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.009664,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.054492,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.002396,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.056406,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.184784,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 46217,
      "relative_activity": 0.183049,
      "balance": 1.184784,
      "dry_up": 0.330421,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.016024,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.083907,
      "from_high_reference": -0.004835,
      "from_low_reference": 0.12107
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 47.844793,
      "fair_value_reference": 41.598085,
      "structural_low": 45.3507,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 45,
        "median_return": 0.009509,
        "positive_rate": 0.644444,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.644444,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005784,
        "regime_survival": 0.888889,
        "best_return": 0.041069,
        "worst_return": -0.042316,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 16,
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        "sufficient": true
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        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.069228,
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "typical_volume": 14205.3,
        "trend": 46.6207,
        "fair_value": 40.098296,
        "relative_strength": -3.118945,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 77.364906,
        "energy": 63.595697,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "fair_value": 40.312147,
        "relative_strength": -5.209673,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 88.971847,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 14993.35,
        "trend": 46.9331,
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        "relative_strength": -5.105404,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 13948.2,
        "trend": 47.024233,
        "fair_value": 40.524937,
        "relative_strength": -5.681479,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 87.302323,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 51438.05,
        "trend": 47.118973,
        "fair_value": 40.630162,
        "relative_strength": -6.624007,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 72.984027,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 48.06,
        "volume": 1663698,
        "typical_volume": 134025.05,
        "trend": 47.19266,
        "fair_value": 40.728829,
        "relative_strength": -5.762886,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.373482,
        "energy": 51.496374,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 48.335,
        "volume": 348074,
        "typical_volume": 151297.15,
        "trend": 47.272827,
        "fair_value": 40.825656,
        "relative_strength": -5.573053,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.806886,
        "energy": 39.706613,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "fair_value": 40.926356,
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        "stage": 3,
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        "energy": 37.066589,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 426793,
        "typical_volume": 226271.8,
        "trend": 47.426283,
        "fair_value": 41.01759,
        "relative_strength": -4.901971,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.330198,
        "energy": 23.986761,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 48.54,
        "volume": 241966,
        "typical_volume": 237939.3,
        "trend": 47.495283,
        "fair_value": 41.115438,
        "relative_strength": -5.285057,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.289455,
        "energy": 25.185649,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 43082,
        "typical_volume": 239899.75,
        "trend": 47.57985,
        "fair_value": 41.213033,
        "relative_strength": -5.417542,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.212534,
        "energy": 41.01939,
        "activity_lines": [
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          47.953937
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 48.56,
        "volume": 142439,
        "typical_volume": 245881.65,
        "trend": 47.643447,
        "fair_value": 41.306642,
        "relative_strength": -4.736502,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.503401,
        "energy": 33.36816,
        "activity_lines": [
          48.590253,
          48.529267,
          48.342697,
          48.017172
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 48.3258,
        "volume": 45130,
        "typical_volume": 247525.0,
        "trend": 47.68864,
        "fair_value": 41.397331,
        "relative_strength": -4.496128,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.920347,
        "energy": 34.425875,
        "activity_lines": [
          48.524873,
          48.487011,
          48.381781,
          48.061195
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 48.76,
        "volume": 99919,
        "typical_volume": 251271.4,
        "trend": 47.752887,
        "fair_value": 41.493742,
        "relative_strength": -4.515448,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.210442,
        "energy": 36.075979,
        "activity_lines": [
          48.62784,
          48.532365,
          48.45462,
          48.130315
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 49.8876,
        "volume": 46217,
        "typical_volume": 252484.6,
        "trend": 47.844793,
        "fair_value": 41.598085,
        "relative_strength": -5.449249,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.64361,
        "energy": 50.051585,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.041507,
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          48.623795,
          48.268038
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}