{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3804d9c2-3bb2-4348-8831-ce762ba5ced7", "symbol": "WNDE", "name": "Invesco Markets II Plc - Invesco Wind Energy Ucits ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.752, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.821, "architecture_energy": 46.79, "architecture_maturity": 4.33, "architecture_confidence": 63.415, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.31, "rotation_up": 14.1, "upward_expansion": 22.26, "deceleration": 55.87, "rotation_down": 68.38, "downward_expansion": 49.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.200167, 7.362236, 7.572257, 7.471752 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.5025, "trend_reference": 7.2902, "distance_from_trend": 0.029121, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.135649, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.460867, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.619572, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.110905, "excess_performance": 0.05967, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029121, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076651, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.460867, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229929, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046196, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.266332, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110905, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.705546, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1783, "relative_activity": 0.174914, "balance": 0.705546, "dry_up": 0.195294, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039525, "annualized_volatility": 0.29153, "from_high_reference": -0.103483, "from_low_reference": 0.454396 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.2902, "fair_value_reference": 5.135649, "structural_low": 6.327, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0277, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006943, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046137, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.039307, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", 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7.741, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11446.25, "trend": 7.101333, "fair_value": 5.052851, "relative_strength": 11.71953, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.115515, "energy": 30.154163, "activity_lines": [ 7.786533, 7.894264, 7.70515, 7.464112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.372, "volume": 5892, "typical_volume": 11735.8, "trend": 7.146167, "fair_value": 5.069646, "relative_strength": 7.803924, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.707147, "energy": 24.133122, "activity_lines": [ 7.632767, 7.788918, 7.696802, 7.481574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.136, "volume": 3257, "typical_volume": 11858.2, "trend": 7.185683, "fair_value": 5.084872, "relative_strength": 3.069412, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -15.648756, "energy": 30.617864, "activity_lines": [ 7.440767, 7.649255, 7.664488, 7.480918 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.21, "volume": 1939, "typical_volume": 11906.9, "trend": 7.225, "fair_value": 5.101207, "relative_strength": 2.565614, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.025153, "energy": 34.666702, "activity_lines": [ 7.319933, 7.5433, 7.639502, 7.482487 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.804, "volume": 984, "typical_volume": 10774.45, "trend": 7.2479, "fair_value": 5.11574, "relative_strength": -4.553364, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.502899, "energy": 61.359977, "activity_lines": [ 7.116867, 7.377336, 7.573112, 7.455326 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.5025, "volume": 1783, "typical_volume": 10193.6, "trend": 7.2902, "fair_value": 5.135649, "relative_strength": 4.619572, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.820528, "energy": 46.790129, "activity_lines": [ 7.200167, 7.362236, 7.572257, 7.471752 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }