{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38054e95-f198-49da-8f5a-14596a4dcfe5", "symbol": "SATL", "name": "Satellogic V Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.625, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.505, "architecture_energy": 34.33, "architecture_maturity": 8.237, "architecture_confidence": 49.133, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.25, "rotation_up": 17.33, "upward_expansion": 18.5, "deceleration": 58.43, "rotation_down": 63.38, "downward_expansion": 48.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.324667, 4.623273, 5.851381, 5.814968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.52, "trend_reference": 5.503667, "distance_from_trend": 0.002968, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.808161, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.965699, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 14.907278, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.533333, "excess_performance": 0.34588, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002968, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.240077, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.965699, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.117618, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.149073, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.593488, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.533333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.571433, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44281165, "relative_activity": 0.936967, "balance": 0.571433, "dry_up": 0.58434, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.312847, "annualized_volatility": 1.377012, "from_high_reference": -0.54, "from_low_reference": 3.398406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.503667, "fair_value_reference": 2.808161, "structural_low": 2.7301, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.335593, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.308601, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.335593, "worst_return": 0.335593, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.169492, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.285633, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.169492, "worst_return": -0.169492, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.332203, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.679125, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.332203, "worst_return": -0.332203, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.355932, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.844003, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.355932, "worst_return": -0.355932, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.083519, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.8, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.172611, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.513333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005626, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010554, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029586, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.15528, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.368182, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.976667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109306, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.445026, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.69, "volume": 134964, "typical_volume": 262190.9, "trend": 2.31196, "fair_value": 6.172917, "relative_strength": -55.46806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.355568, 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.105983, "energy": 47.707717, "activity_lines": [ 4.588, 5.679818, 6.446333, 6.034914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.59, "volume": 21879250, "typical_volume": 46679788.7, "trend": 5.366, "fair_value": 2.773481, "relative_strength": -20.815755, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.568715, "energy": 58.044848, "activity_lines": [ 4.155333, 5.092909, 6.189619, 5.923742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.58, "volume": 20520885, "typical_volume": 46903714.7, "trend": 5.42, "fair_value": 2.784315, "relative_strength": -21.307117, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.686139, "energy": 59.408703, "activity_lines": [ 3.882, 4.617818, 5.929571, 5.808516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.52, "volume": 44281165, "typical_volume": 47260105.35, "trend": 5.503667, "fair_value": 2.808161, "relative_strength": 14.907278, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.505116, "energy": 34.329875, "activity_lines": [ 4.324667, 4.623273, 5.851381, 5.814968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }