{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3806d5f8-dad8-4a85-a3c5-f8a2261372b2", "symbol": "006207", "name": "Fuh Hwa CSI 300 A Shares Exchange Traded Fund", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.593, "architecture_energy": 19.111, "architecture_maturity": 76.432, "architecture_confidence": 70.332, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.08, "rotation_up": 26.63, "upward_expansion": 55.35, "deceleration": 88.06, "rotation_down": 33.16, "downward_expansion": 19.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.098, 33.266546, 33.245857, 32.93043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 33.450001, "trend_reference": 32.515667, "distance_from_trend": 0.028735, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.845192, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.294245, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.647313, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.060222, "excess_performance": -0.31909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028735, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036246, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.294245, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03362, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206473, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015564, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060222, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.515679, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 803000, "relative_activity": 0.677938, "balance": 0.515679, "dry_up": 1.535901, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032609, "annualized_volatility": 0.123316, "from_high_reference": -0.034911, "from_low_reference": 0.368658 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.515667, "fair_value_reference": 25.845192, "structural_low": 30.200001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.005298, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.013369, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.043112, "worst_return": -0.080047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.054687, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.122681, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.085025, "worst_return": -0.101662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.010483, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.095711, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.12327, "worst_return": -0.093787, 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60.977959, "energy": 49.755582, "activity_lines": [ 33.792667, 33.588728, 32.977905, 32.558667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 33.830002, "volume": 279000, "typical_volume": 1114160.2, "trend": 32.066, "fair_value": 25.556603, "relative_strength": -26.308566, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.82461, "energy": 48.139047, "activity_lines": [ 33.822668, 33.671637, 33.104477, 32.681807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.369999, "volume": 1386997, "typical_volume": 1150335.0, "trend": 32.188667, "fair_value": 25.619103, "relative_strength": -24.57804, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.683598, "energy": 43.672924, "activity_lines": [ 33.698667, 33.644728, 33.175905, 32.765936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.169998, "volume": 3501892, "typical_volume": 1258379.4, "trend": 32.264667, "fair_value": 25.673974, "relative_strength": -22.25464, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.467606, "energy": 13.618627, "activity_lines": [ 33.178666, 33.390182, 33.125191, 32.764731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.209999, "volume": 1474000, "typical_volume": 1227422.6, "trend": 32.364, "fair_value": 25.732564, "relative_strength": -21.122641, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.770206, "energy": 19.421771, "activity_lines": [ 33.088666, 33.345091, 33.172095, 32.82572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.970001, "volume": 1498050, "typical_volume": 1230324.45, "trend": 32.433, "fair_value": 25.79109, "relative_strength": -20.253692, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.678396, "energy": 19.621413, "activity_lines": [ 32.984666, 33.262, 33.188, 32.864817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.450001, "volume": 803000, "typical_volume": 1184474.2, "trend": 32.515667, "fair_value": 25.845192, "relative_strength": -20.647313, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.593425, "energy": 19.111324, "activity_lines": [ 33.098, 33.266546, 33.245857, 32.93043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }