{ "ticker": { "uuid": "381326d1-a510-4239-ac56-d99009aa6776", "symbol": "SMGB", "name": "VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.146, "architecture_energy": 27.012, "architecture_maturity": 74.344, "architecture_confidence": 94.022, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.0, "rotation_up": 19.54, "upward_expansion": 54.61, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 33.34, "downward_expansion": 20.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.178667, 82.040728, 80.23162, 74.719914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 80.489998, "trend_reference": 67.536333, "distance_from_trend": 0.191803, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.197099, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.053468, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 31.474589, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.560186, "excess_performance": 0.508951, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.191803, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.230032, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.053468, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130945, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.314746, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270768, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.560186, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.208571, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1727278, "relative_activity": 1.477571, "balance": 1.208571, "dry_up": 1.643893, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08841, "annualized_volatility": 0.373153, "from_high_reference": -0.142355, "from_low_reference": 1.305874 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.536333, "fair_value_reference": 39.197099, "structural_low": 47.935001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.080421, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.069264, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.333132, "worst_return": -0.054179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.101778, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.081393, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.785614, "worst_return": -0.029331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.216669, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.263041, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.379326, "worst_return": 0.030556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005283, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066443, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059179, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.323102, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087542, "active": false }, { "regime": 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80.620003, "volume": 1435077, "typical_volume": 1000749.55, "trend": 65.581, "fair_value": 38.47899, "relative_strength": 36.737555, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.742276, "energy": 36.500514, "activity_lines": [ 82.112002, 84.18691, 79.25362, 73.157656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 75.830002, "volume": 2689025, "typical_volume": 1108064.55, "trend": 66.524, "fair_value": 38.819599, "relative_strength": 25.705721, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.805403, "energy": 27.963769, "activity_lines": [ 79.434002, 82.665092, 79.578572, 73.818882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.489998, "volume": 1727278, "typical_volume": 1168998.3, "trend": 67.536333, "fair_value": 39.197099, "relative_strength": 31.474589, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.14642, "energy": 27.011763, "activity_lines": [ 79.178667, 82.040728, 80.23162, 74.719914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }