{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38160b64-393e-4ead-8a4f-10e67ddd2548", "symbol": "VIV", "name": "Vivendi SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.31, "architecture_energy": 84.241, "architecture_maturity": 17.923, "architecture_confidence": 74.714, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.25, "rotation_up": 10.73, "upward_expansion": 21.67, "deceleration": 34.18, "rotation_down": 81.29, "downward_expansion": 95.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.7668, 1.9052, 2.026285, 2.037128 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.716, "trend_reference": 2.077576, "distance_from_trend": -0.174038, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.501769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.6881, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.091958, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.218127, "excess_performance": -0.392374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.174038, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069029, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.6881, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036432, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.42092, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092399, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.218127, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.197151, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2000, "relative_activity": 0.373598, "balance": 2.197151, "dry_up": 0.661455, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091537, "annualized_volatility": 0.512518, "from_high_reference": -0.464618, "from_low_reference": 0.062539 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.077576, "fair_value_reference": 5.501769, "structural_low": 1.615, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.002981, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.017199, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.316616, "worst_return": -0.706824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.014414, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.027667, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.172899, "worst_return": -0.660631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.086723, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.214176, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.145364, "worst_return": -0.653087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.653087, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001735, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043963, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005179, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.936, "volume": 13521, "typical_volume": 5667.45, "trend": 2.149005, "fair_value": 5.660617, "relative_strength": -37.663225, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.347126, "energy": 19.774162, "activity_lines": [ 2.1104, 2.168436, 2.133846, 2.125851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.883, "volume": 7235, "typical_volume": 6029.2, "trend": 2.13521, "fair_value": 5.620338, "relative_strength": -37.155834, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.086875, "energy": 42.713964, "activity_lines": [ 2.025133, 2.112073, 2.115043, 2.108689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.904, "volume": 3575, "typical_volume": 6207.95, "trend": 2.122016, "fair_value": 5.581432, "relative_strength": -36.169671, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.954919, "energy": 63.096699, "activity_lines": [ 1.964667, 2.063327, 2.099519, 2.093773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.627, "volume": 1354, "typical_volume": 5653.35, "trend": 2.098968, "fair_value": 5.541193, "relative_strength": -44.445379, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.626867, "energy": 85.290722, "activity_lines": [ 1.8328, 1.969527, 2.057932, 2.061836 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.716, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 5353.35, "trend": 2.077576, "fair_value": 5.501769, "relative_strength": -42.091958, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.309701, "energy": 84.24132, "activity_lines": [ 1.7668, 1.9052, 2.026285, 2.037128 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }