{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3819c01b-31b6-475e-ae67-f0c341d6e51f", "symbol": "AIM", "name": "4AIM SICAF S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -85.407, "architecture_energy": 78.382, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.078, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.03, "upward_expansion": 13.75, "deceleration": 46.32, "rotation_down": 88.47, "downward_expansion": 91.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.983333, 35.823818, 45.663381, 52.288408 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 27.799999, "trend_reference": 59.912666, "distance_from_trend": -0.535991, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 131.006282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.787796, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -62.896124, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.613889, "excess_performance": -0.784781, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.535991, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172416, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.787796, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.240619, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.628961, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.447378, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.613889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116, "relative_activity": 0.961857, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 2.160033, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115302, "annualized_volatility": 0.537352, "from_high_reference": -0.691077, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.912666, "fair_value_reference": 131.006282, "structural_low": 27.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.095652, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.115041, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.104167, "worst_return": -0.003875, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.208333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.247459, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.087612, "worst_return": -0.286957, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.294118, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.345175, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.245833, "worst_return": -0.465217, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.215925, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066304, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.65627, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09881, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.049833, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04412, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -78.459708, "energy": 92.432993, "activity_lines": [ 46.824, 51.510182, 58.707905, 62.517312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 45.98, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 68.5, "trend": 66.030667, "fair_value": 135.013846, "relative_strength": -39.868611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.771384, "energy": 89.76257, "activity_lines": [ 46.048, 49.724, 57.026286, 61.15058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.810001, "volume": 706, "typical_volume": 103.8, "trend": 64.557667, "fair_value": 133.986987, "relative_strength": -56.063935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -99.16384, "energy": 79.620294, "activity_lines": [ 41.59, 45.961818, 54.214286, 59.007312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.049999, "volume": 210, "typical_volume": 114.3, "trend": 62.966, "fair_value": 132.955256, "relative_strength": -60.61038, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -98.363423, "energy": 79.375505, "activity_lines": [ 36.824667, 42.092182, 51.230809, 56.716494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.0, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 114.8, "trend": 61.469333, "fair_value": 131.98141, "relative_strength": -61.929903, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.425425, "energy": 78.032069, "activity_lines": [ 32.838, 38.667091, 48.351857, 54.460623 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.799999, "volume": 116, "typical_volume": 120.6, "trend": 59.912666, "fair_value": 131.006282, "relative_strength": -62.896124, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.406916, "energy": 78.381713, "activity_lines": [ 29.983333, 35.823818, 45.663381, 52.288408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }