{ "ticker": { "uuid": "381ac9a8-da08-4a74-8bc6-f2c6d279a2f5", "symbol": "BFU", "name": "Tye Soon Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.703, "architecture_energy": 42.156, "architecture_maturity": 20.164, "architecture_confidence": 89.064, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.22, "rotation_up": 18.87, "upward_expansion": 5.44, "deceleration": 50.95, "rotation_down": 55.88, "downward_expansion": 78.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.280667, 0.282, 0.288685, 0.291786 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.28, "trend_reference": 0.295352, "distance_from_trend": -0.051979, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.287732, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026872, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.211623, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.086826, "excess_performance": -0.241662, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051979, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020766, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026872, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076027, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212116, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155024, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086826, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.48851, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119900, "relative_activity": 5.184865, "balance": 1.48851, "dry_up": 1.945946, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039835, "annualized_volatility": 0.305086, "from_high_reference": -0.148113, "from_low_reference": 0.12 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.295352, "fair_value_reference": 0.287732, "structural_low": 0.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.021124, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.196969, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.009356, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.257844, "worst_return": -0.062533, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.041215, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.022339, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.212378, "worst_return": -0.157454, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.064514, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03448, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044389, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.28, "volume": 36000, "typical_volume": 22130.0, "trend": 0.297134, "fair_value": 0.288357, "relative_strength": -20.708929, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.509737, "energy": 46.531397, "activity_lines": [ 0.284667, 0.286091, 0.29201, 0.294231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.275, "volume": 10200, "typical_volume": 22265.0, "trend": 0.295761, "fair_value": 0.288028, "relative_strength": -22.231637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.732219, "energy": 45.726984, "activity_lines": [ 0.281667, 0.283364, 0.290102, 0.292803 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.28, "volume": 119900, "typical_volume": 23125.0, "trend": 0.295352, "fair_value": 0.287732, "relative_strength": -21.211623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.702587, "energy": 42.155873, "activity_lines": [ 0.280667, 0.282, 0.288685, 0.291786 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }