{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38227b33-ae31-4d76-bd1c-57529f2b8e63", "symbol": "BITU", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA BITCOIN ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.256, "architecture_energy": 39.411, "architecture_maturity": 75.855, "architecture_confidence": 61.697, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.89, "rotation_up": 26.31, "upward_expansion": 17.47, "deceleration": 65.99, "rotation_down": 39.38, "downward_expansion": 65.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.422422, 9.287181, 10.576203, 11.322246 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.64, "trend_reference": 12.838402, "distance_from_trend": -0.249128, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.843179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.626981, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -60.610719, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.262106, "excess_performance": -0.387731, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.249128, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279408, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.626981, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198132, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.606107, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085974, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.262106, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.681064, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16921671, "relative_activity": 0.799835, "balance": 0.681064, "dry_up": 0.929609, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165301, "annualized_volatility": 0.767677, "from_high_reference": -0.80536, "from_low_reference": 0.22174 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.838402, "fair_value_reference": 25.843179, "structural_low": 7.890383, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.016847, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.021648, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.197069, "worst_return": -0.461192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.185145, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.241423, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.16698, "worst_return": -0.53727, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.460003, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.573274, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.460003, "worst_return": -0.460003, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.082046, "energy": 57.827694, "activity_lines": [ 9.199583, 9.658961, 11.28566, 12.163603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.470307, "volume": 19542998, "typical_volume": 21928705.15, "trend": 13.754186, "fair_value": 26.115784, "relative_strength": -62.09578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.666831, "energy": 50.986058, "activity_lines": [ 9.320181, 9.449263, 11.042789, 11.860364 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.061158, "volume": 20895322, "typical_volume": 21670063.75, "trend": 13.287806, "fair_value": 25.975992, "relative_strength": -62.962617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.254953, "energy": 44.489518, "activity_lines": [ 9.297334, 9.270957, 10.77258, 11.557588 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.64, "volume": 16921671, "typical_volume": 21156462.95, "trend": 12.838402, "fair_value": 25.843179, "relative_strength": -60.610719, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.255575, "energy": 39.410779, "activity_lines": [ 9.422422, 9.287181, 10.576203, 11.322246 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }