{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "38258ae1-f321-4a55-b717-a28b2f539efa",
    "symbol": "LOVI",
    "name": "Lovisagruvan AB (publ)",
    "exchange": "STO",
    "country": "SE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^OMX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 87.392,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -57.135,
    "architecture_energy": 44.629,
    "architecture_maturity": 33.281,
    "architecture_confidence": 90.365,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.2,
        "rotation_up": 21.52,
        "upward_expansion": 6.62,
        "deceleration": 49.84,
        "rotation_down": 48.4,
        "downward_expansion": 75.29
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        10.502,
        10.647818,
        11.918,
        12.746839
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Stable",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 10.85,
    "trend_reference": 14.291333,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.240799,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 18.19641,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.403729,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -16.638795,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.569444,
    "excess_performance": -0.630939,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.240799,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.03937,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.403729,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.099383,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.166388,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.226097,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.569444,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.521125,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 15889,
      "relative_activity": 0.453008,
      "balance": 1.521125,
      "dry_up": 0.258956,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.170436,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.867779,
      "from_high_reference": -0.72875,
      "from_low_reference": 0.793388
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 14.291333,
      "fair_value_reference": 18.19641,
      "structural_low": 8.52,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 31,
        "median_return": -0.009132,
        "positive_rate": 0.451613,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.548387,
        "median_excess_return": -0.038316,
        "regime_survival": 0.741935,
        "best_return": 0.451429,
        "worst_return": -0.529801,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.003151,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.063682,
        "regime_survival": 0.583333,
        "best_return": 0.301802,
        "worst_return": -0.439024,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.062636,
        "positive_rate": 0.375,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.062452,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
        "best_return": 1.144928,
        "worst_return": -0.602305,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.186768,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.338458,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.008189,
        "worst_return": -0.247059,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.046703,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-02-28",
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        "return": -0.17,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
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        "return": 0.014409,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
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        "return": 1.166667,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 256066.65,
        "trend": 12.98,
        "fair_value": 20.196795,
        "relative_strength": 5.97086,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 256620.15,
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        "stage": 3,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 253638.25,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "stage": 1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 14.155,
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        "relative_strength": -17.573707,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -39.248914,
        "energy": 56.580183,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 7604,
        "typical_volume": 71283.7,
        "trend": 14.191667,
        "fair_value": 18.986538,
        "relative_strength": -26.216726,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -73.451545,
        "energy": 74.625086,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.093333,
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          13.98129
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 5824,
        "typical_volume": 60162.8,
        "trend": 14.29,
        "fair_value": 18.819551,
        "relative_strength": -17.256716,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.897639,
        "energy": 71.413469,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.83,
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          12.890714,
          13.772151
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 9.74,
        "volume": 7096,
        "typical_volume": 50917.55,
        "trend": 14.328,
        "fair_value": 18.666602,
        "relative_strength": -24.734645,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.794826,
        "energy": 76.780741,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.393333,
          11.376364,
          12.548095,
          13.478602
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 10.35,
        "volume": 7763,
        "typical_volume": 44747.8,
        "trend": 14.354667,
        "fair_value": 18.507308,
        "relative_strength": -20.385007,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.16872,
        "energy": 68.704808,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.310667,
          11.012909,
          12.301952,
          13.221957
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 10.45,
        "volume": 5583,
        "typical_volume": 38952.6,
        "trend": 14.309667,
        "fair_value": 18.343526,
        "relative_strength": -19.363859,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -59.484137,
        "energy": 56.590229,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.321333,
          10.752182,
          12.086524,
          12.970043
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 10.85,
        "volume": 15889,
        "typical_volume": 35074.45,
        "trend": 14.291333,
        "fair_value": 18.19641,
        "relative_strength": -16.638795,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -57.135287,
        "energy": 44.629127,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.502,
          10.647818,
          11.918,
          12.746839
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}