{ "ticker": { "uuid": "382632fa-7d6b-41ff-bafc-eeec379228ad", "symbol": "XMBR", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.469, "architecture_energy": 21.274, "architecture_maturity": 23.091, "architecture_confidence": 67.472, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.43, "rotation_up": 38.42, "upward_expansion": 26.02, "deceleration": 39.55, "rotation_down": 23.0, "downward_expansion": 48.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.873999, 57.321454, 57.588714, 58.007419 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 56.919998, "trend_reference": 58.124667, "distance_from_trend": -0.020726, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.086571, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208837, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.517817, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.015395, "excess_performance": -0.186287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020726, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040284, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208837, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119477, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085178, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170701, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015395, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.549182, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19394, "relative_activity": 1.116446, "balance": 0.549182, "dry_up": 1.041451, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035556, "annualized_volatility": 0.209595, "from_high_reference": -0.126592, "from_low_reference": 0.369916 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.124667, "fair_value_reference": 47.086571, "structural_low": 54.290001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.00135, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01398, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.144632, "worst_return": -0.098051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.000847, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030692, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119167, "worst_return": -0.09175, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.037911, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.100291, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.104507, "worst_return": -0.082948, "sufficient": false 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56.429167, "fair_value": 46.544936, "relative_strength": -10.054934, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.086965, "energy": 57.844473, "activity_lines": [ 55.243999, 56.771999, 58.293619, 57.854473 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 56.290001, "volume": 4784, "typical_volume": 23946.55, "trend": 56.605833, "fair_value": 46.613782, "relative_strength": -4.584249, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.823135, "energy": 53.816777, "activity_lines": [ 55.450666, 56.386181, 58.059047, 57.845495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 56.5, "volume": 4144, "typical_volume": 22224.7, "trend": 56.795167, "fair_value": 46.687436, "relative_strength": -6.990432, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.898491, "energy": 29.43745, "activity_lines": [ 55.818, 56.178181, 57.851714, 57.838667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 57.799999, "volume": 21813, "typical_volume": 21203.4, "trend": 57.066167, "fair_value": 46.773365, "relative_strength": -4.590256, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.657119, "energy": 18.278418, "activity_lines": [ 56.586666, 56.310727, 57.776714, 57.903495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 57.220001, "volume": 8241, "typical_volume": 19699.15, "trend": 57.342667, "fair_value": 46.846154, "relative_strength": -4.336493, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.88566, "energy": 12.805519, "activity_lines": [ 56.936667, 56.405273, 57.657952, 57.913419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.810001, "volume": 14978, "typical_volume": 18058.05, "trend": 57.675333, "fair_value": 46.924936, "relative_strength": -1.752576, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.860422, "energy": 17.352171, "activity_lines": [ 57.708, 56.861455, 57.704762, 58.008086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.709999, "volume": 29752, "typical_volume": 17917.15, "trend": 57.965, "fair_value": 47.008397, "relative_strength": -2.779018, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.563683, "energy": 21.411924, "activity_lines": [ 58.17, 57.263818, 57.735667, 58.074839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.919998, "volume": 19394, "typical_volume": 17371.2, "trend": 58.124667, "fair_value": 47.086571, "relative_strength": -8.517817, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.468577, "energy": 21.273685, "activity_lines": [ 57.873999, 57.321454, 57.588714, 58.007419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }