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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.054, "architecture_energy": 25.299, "architecture_maturity": 79.558, "architecture_confidence": 70.456, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.23, "rotation_up": 34.77, "upward_expansion": 61.96, "deceleration": 88.12, "rotation_down": 24.14, "downward_expansion": 14.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 85.775138, 86.022939, 84.868051, 83.772955 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 84.599998, "trend_reference": 82.280561, "distance_from_trend": 0.028189, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 66.290089, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276209, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.582458, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.069448, "excess_performance": -0.371924, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028189, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027901, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276209, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040521, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.235825, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022681, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069448, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.548916, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3009297, "relative_activity": 1.496787, "balance": 0.548916, "dry_up": 1.529473, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038246, "annualized_volatility": 0.120324, "from_high_reference": -0.067912, "from_low_reference": 0.21383 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 82.280561, "fair_value_reference": 66.290089, 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"energy": 78.827419, "activity_lines": [ 86.750509, 85.133496, 83.783228, 82.69077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 87.099998, "volume": 3456497, "typical_volume": 1846212.05, "trend": 81.677584, "fair_value": 65.405293, "relative_strength": -19.31786, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.421606, "energy": 74.959793, "activity_lines": [ 87.22564, 85.683959, 84.218836, 83.056182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 87.599998, "volume": 3033403, "typical_volume": 1930448.45, "trend": 81.985692, "fair_value": 65.715961, "relative_strength": -17.246893, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.038537, "energy": 72.601069, "activity_lines": [ 87.612083, 86.236007, 84.661222, 83.438273 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 84.706772, "volume": 2800856, "typical_volume": 1971263.05, "trend": 82.133518, "fair_value": 66.004782, "relative_strength": -21.427006, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.502505, "energy": 41.556784, "activity_lines": [ 86.717674, 86.160571, 84.78484, 83.613827 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 84.599998, "volume": 3009297, "typical_volume": 2010504.7, "trend": 82.280561, "fair_value": 66.290089, "relative_strength": -23.582458, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.054479, "energy": 25.29885, "activity_lines": [ 85.775138, 86.022939, 84.868051, 83.772955 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }