{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "382bb5e2-19d4-45f0-a17d-e3e8e145cdeb",
    "symbol": "BHP",
    "name": "BHP Group Limited",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 67.708,
    "architecture_energy": 37.503,
    "architecture_maturity": 40.154,
    "architecture_confidence": 69.244,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 36.64,
        "rotation_up": 47.27,
        "upward_expansion": 74.6,
        "deceleration": 68.75,
        "rotation_down": 23.23,
        "downward_expansion": 3.6
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        3181.4,
        3151.818182,
        3131.12619,
        3045.065019
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 3346.0,
    "trend_reference": 2904.85341,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.151865,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 2289.162186,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.46167,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 21.079544,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.320169,
    "excess_performance": 0.25389,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.151865,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.128353,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.46167,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.073366,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.210795,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.095265,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.320169,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.646977,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4696738,
      "relative_activity": 1.554022,
      "balance": 1.646977,
      "dry_up": 1.312303,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.061788,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.37842,
      "from_high_reference": -0.005646,
      "from_low_reference": 0.745684
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 2904.85341,
      "fair_value_reference": 2289.162186,
      "structural_low": 2410.0,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.01859,
        "positive_rate": 0.545455,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.545455,
        "median_excess_return": 0.018802,
        "regime_survival": 0.363636,
        "best_return": 0.148433,
        "worst_return": -0.137803,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.068872,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.064954,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.469506,
        "worst_return": -0.141363,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.055793,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.069301,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.513837,
        "worst_return": -0.156735,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.044725,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.063408,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.24632,
        "worst_return": -0.156869,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-01-26",
        "end": "2024-02-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.044504,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-03-01",
        "end": "2024-03-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.011916,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-04-05",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.050328,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.080721,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.071157,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.010974,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.025761,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-12-06",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.058868,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.02334,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
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        "volume": 4696738,
        "typical_volume": 3022311.9,
        "trend": 2904.85341,
        "fair_value": 2289.162186,
        "relative_strength": 21.079544,
        "stage": 2,
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    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}