{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38314e76-e42f-4992-9626-79e4422be64c", "symbol": "VBIO", "name": "Valion Bio Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.536, "architecture_energy": 85.157, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.749, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.9, "rotation_up": 15.17, "upward_expansion": 20.53, "deceleration": 37.35, "rotation_down": 76.09, "downward_expansion": 98.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.338467, 0.414073, 0.585026, 0.685527 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.2854, "trend_reference": 0.80864, "distance_from_trend": -0.647062, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.711418, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.970612, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -84.005294, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.667405, "excess_performance": -0.854858, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.647062, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.348982, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.970612, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014382, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.840053, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171874, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.667405, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.235301, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3752489, "relative_activity": 1.77772, "balance": 0.235301, "dry_up": 2.521526, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.589132, "annualized_volatility": 1.13341, "from_high_reference": -0.949036, "from_low_reference": 0.137052 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.80864, "fair_value_reference": 9.711418, "structural_low": 0.251, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.15141, "positive_rate": 0.228571, "directional_follow_through": 0.771429, "median_excess_return": -0.186552, "regime_survival": 0.971429, "best_return": 0.726496, "worst_return": -0.575676, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.299435, "positive_rate": 0.090909, "directional_follow_through": 0.909091, "median_excess_return": -0.417586, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.971004, "worst_return": -0.704013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.682167, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.801561, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": -0.132977, "worst_return": -0.863109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.903727, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -1.150433, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.466717, "worst_return": -0.963573, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.860789, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.242981, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.780821, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.13343, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.616771, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.270517, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.911366, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 101.66, "volume": 1084919170, "typical_volume": 117649767.2, "trend": 291.051333, "fair_value": 2382.751953, "relative_strength": -92.774958, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.13963, "energy": 52.813004, "activity_lines": [ 91.63, 108.262182, 143.605476, 184.127548 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 37.06, "volume": 204362670, "typical_volume": 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"fair_value": 10.896512, "relative_strength": -83.743788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.35631, "energy": 71.939806, "activity_lines": [ 0.438987, 0.507913, 0.676742, 0.75842 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.31, "volume": 4133282, "typical_volume": 1947274.3, "trend": 0.844127, "fair_value": 10.117153, "relative_strength": -82.444171, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.698297, "energy": 82.820159, "activity_lines": [ 0.38466, 0.458298, 0.630555, 0.721574 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.2854, "volume": 3752489, "typical_volume": 2110843.95, "trend": 0.80864, "fair_value": 9.711418, "relative_strength": -84.005294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.536222, "energy": 85.156557, "activity_lines": [ 0.338467, 0.414073, 0.585026, 0.685527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }