{ "ticker": { "uuid": "383b3216-ac32-4971-aa9a-584235f48e5f", "symbol": "CMI", "name": "Cummins Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.953, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.887, "architecture_energy": 12.12, "architecture_maturity": 45.454, "architecture_confidence": 87.357, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.76, "rotation_up": 19.82, "upward_expansion": 44.63, "deceleration": 87.22, "rotation_down": 29.74, "downward_expansion": 24.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 648.330667, 658.829091, 658.901579, 641.665304 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 644.26, "trend_reference": 619.675295, "distance_from_trend": 0.039674, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 373.747975, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.723782, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.512785, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.122416, "excess_performance": -0.003209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039674, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097537, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.723782, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286559, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.055128, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2514, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122416, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.449739, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7081587, "relative_activity": 1.513068, "balance": 1.449739, "dry_up": 1.113694, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089525, "annualized_volatility": 0.318996, "from_high_reference": -0.126735, "from_low_reference": 0.694112 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 619.675295, "fair_value_reference": 373.747975, "structural_low": 508.45496, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.041956, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.018443, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.175507, "worst_return": -0.075386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062912, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.013084, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.347794, "worst_return": -0.190436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.040939, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027336, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.321973, "worst_return": -0.035014, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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638.481845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 634.2, "volume": 5587745, "typical_volume": 4530056.5, "trend": 616.483954, "fair_value": 371.053407, "relative_strength": 8.114072, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.483074, "energy": 14.453884, "activity_lines": [ 652.576, 662.511636, 658.55042, 639.873301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 644.26, "volume": 7081587, "typical_volume": 4680282.9, "trend": 619.675295, "fair_value": 373.747975, "relative_strength": 5.512785, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.886885, "energy": 12.120011, "activity_lines": [ 648.330667, 658.829091, 658.901579, 641.665304 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }